当前时点，如何看待周期板块？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the commodity market, focusing on the impacts of tariffs and macroeconomic conditions on various sectors including metals, construction materials, and energy [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Commodity Market Dynamics: The macroeconomic fluctuations have dominated the commodity market, particularly affecting industrial metals and black products. Precious metals have performed well due to cautious economic outlooks influenced by tariffs and a weakened dollar credit system [2][3]. - Steel and Metal Demand: Steel demand is negatively impacted by tariffs, while copper and aluminum are seen as undervalued with defensive attributes. Gold is highlighted as a key investment due to its low valuation and benefits from recession trading [3][5]. - Rare Earth Materials: Rare earth magnets are noted for their strategic importance amid export controls and quota policies, making them a focus despite valuation challenges [6]. - Construction Materials: The rise in quartz sand prices due to tariffs is pushing for domestic penetration, benefiting companies like China Liansu and Huaxin Cement. The increase in second-hand housing transactions supports demand for companies like Sankeshu and Beixin Building Materials [7]. - Aviation and Logistics: The decline in oil prices is favorable for domestic-focused sectors like aviation and logistics. The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability due to rising passenger rates and the recovery of international routes [9][10]. - Trade and Tariff Impacts: The delay in U.S. tariffs on non-China imports shifts market focus to non-U.S. exposure companies, with firms like Seaspan International and DeXiang Shipping highlighted as potential beneficiaries [11]. Additional Important Insights - Resource Market Outlook: Short-term recovery is anticipated in the resource market due to easing tariff tensions, while long-term trends suggest a rise in commodity prices driven by a weakening dollar and monetary easing [4]. - Energy Sector Trends: The oil and gas sector is under pressure from geopolitical risks and tariff policies, with oil prices expected to stabilize below $65 per barrel. The U.S. gasoline sales season is anticipated to influence market dynamics positively [15][16]. - Electric Power Sector: The electric power industry is experiencing foreign capital fluctuations due to trade tensions, but long-term growth prospects remain strong despite short-term volatility [23]. - Building Industry Focus: The construction sector is advised to focus on domestic demand and the "Belt and Road" initiative, with state-owned enterprises expected to benefit from related stimulus policies [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key Stocks to Watch: Companies such as Shenhua, Yangu Fang, and Clean Energy are recommended for their high dividend yields and growth potential in the clean energy sector. In the coal sector, firms like Huamin are noted for their defensive characteristics amid potential policy stimuli [29].