福达股份20250413

Summary of the Conference Call for 福达股份 Industry Overview - The global supply chain is undergoing regional restructuring, with economic divisions becoming more apparent across hemispheres and major regions. Chinese enterprises, particularly leading firms, are positioned to benefit from this trend due to their global layout capabilities, capital, experience, and customer relationships. However, there are risks associated with potential decoupling and the return of U.S. manufacturing, which may be incentivized through tariffs and other mechanisms [3][4]. Key Points on 福达股份 - 福达股份 is experiencing strong growth in its main business, with a resilient robotics segment. The investment logic mirrors that of 双林股份, focusing first on the growth of core products before expanding into robotics to catalyze valuation [4][9]. - The company has minimal exposure to the U.S. market, with overseas revenue projected at only 0.04 billion, representing a small fraction of its total revenue. Consequently, tariff policies are unlikely to impact its performance, and there is potential for upward revision of earnings expectations due to strong domestic and European demand [10]. - By 2025, 福达股份 plans to double its production capacity, with new capacity already secured by major clients such as 比亚迪, 理想, 赛力斯, and 奇瑞. The company is also collaborating with a European tier-one supplier, household power, which supplies to Volvo and Renault, indicating a robust fundamental outlook [11]. - The main business is expected to support revenues of 7 to 8 billion, with projected main business income exceeding 3 billion in 2025. Given the high growth rate and certainty in market positioning, a price-to-earnings ratio of around 25 times is deemed appropriate [12]. Opportunities and Risks - The domestic market's comprehensive breakthrough is creating a surge in demand for domestic industrial software, particularly in the automotive sector. Companies like 金泽斐 and 润 are expected to benefit from this trend as the need for domestic alternatives grows [4][6]. - The "China R&D, overseas production" model is gaining traction, driven by the availability of skilled Chinese engineers in emerging markets. This shift is anticipated to allow leading and specialized firms to escape the "involution" trap and achieve higher profitability [7]. - The output of Chinese standards is expected to grow alongside the "China R&D, overseas production" model, potentially leading to the emergence of organizations similar to TUV and VDA, which could enhance global standard-setting capabilities [8]. Conclusion 福达股份 is well-positioned for growth with a strong core business and expanding robotics segment. The company faces minimal risks from U.S. tariffs and is set to benefit from increasing domestic demand and strategic partnerships. The evolving landscape of the global supply chain presents both opportunities and challenges for Chinese enterprises, particularly in the context of industrial software and production models.