关税缓和预期下，如何看纺服板块的投资机会？

Summary of Conference Call on Textile and Apparel Sector Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the textile and apparel industry, particularly the impact of tariff policies on the sector and investment opportunities arising from these changes [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Impact of Tariff Policies: - From 2018 to 2019, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese textiles and apparel, with rates ranging from 10% to 25% [2][3]. - The initial tariff imposition led to a "rush to export," causing fluctuations in export growth rates, particularly in the textile sector [2][3]. - Brand owners bore most of the tariff costs, while manufacturers experienced revenue losses but maintained profit margins [2][5]. 2. Current Manufacturing Landscape: - Leading textile manufacturers have shifted over 50% of their production capacity to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [2][6]. - The supply chain in Vietnam remains tight, limiting the speed of capacity migration [2][6]. 3. Short-term Tariff Outlook: - Recent U.S. trade policy has softened, with a 10% baseline tariff on 75 countries, including Southeast Asia, expected to remain stable in the short term [2][7]. - Manufacturers are expected to absorb a smaller portion of the tariffs than previously anticipated, with brands likely passing costs onto consumers [2][9]. 4. Market Dynamics: - The sports footwear and apparel sectors are experiencing supply constraints, leading brands to absorb tariff costs to ensure supply chain stability [2][11]. - The current market environment favors leading companies, as weaker manufacturers may exit the market due to profitability pressures [2][11]. 5. Investment Opportunities: - 2025 is highlighted as a favorable investment year for the sports apparel and footwear sectors, with companies like Huayi expected to adjust profit strategies to capture more orders [2][12]. - Retail performance has shown improvement, with positive growth in Q1 2025, indicating a good time for brand investments [2][13]. 6. Future Retail Trends: - The retail sector is expected to improve over the next three quarters, driven by technological advancements and a gradual recovery in consumer demand [2][14]. - Brands are advised to focus on inventory management and potential markdowns in Q4 2025 due to previous inventory pressures [2][14]. 7. Segment Analysis: - The sports apparel and mid-to-high-end business menswear segments show resilience, while mass-market brands, particularly women's apparel, face significant challenges [2][15]. - Policies such as childcare subsidies are expected to benefit specific companies like Semir and Haier [2][15]. 8. Investment Strategy Recommendations: - The brand segment is currently the most promising for investment, with specific recommendations for companies like Haier and Anta Sports, which have shown strong performance [2][16]. - In manufacturing, long-term investments should focus on companies with strong growth potential, such as Huayi Group and Weixing New Materials [2][17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the textile and apparel industry is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on adapting to changing tariff landscapes and leveraging supply chain dynamics for competitive advantage [2][12][17]. - The potential for market share consolidation among leading manufacturers is significant, especially as weaker players exit the market due to financial pressures [2][11][12].