清洁技术- 关税相关要点

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Clean Tech in North America - Analyst: Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, led by Andrew S Percoco Core Insights - Tariff Impact on Earnings: The report maps revenue exposure and quantifies the tariff impact on earnings for various companies in the clean tech sector [1][3][6] - FSLR (First Solar Inc): - Near-term earnings may be impacted, but it is expected to benefit significantly from tariffs in the long term due to stronger pricing for domestic capacity - Over 90% of FSLR's revenue comes from US customers, with approximately 50% of manufacturing capacity located in Malaysia, Vietnam, and India - Estimated tariff exposure in 2025 is around $500 million to $600 million, with a potential 12.5% to 17.5% EPS impact due to unsold volumes and tariff pass-through protections [6][7] - GE Vernova (GEV): - Limited tariff exposure due to strong pricing power, with approximately 40% of revenue generated in the US - Estimated tariff exposure of $350 million to $450 million, which is about 10% to 15% of 2025/2026 EBITDA [6][7] - Bloom Energy (BE): - 74% of revenue derived from US customers, with manufacturing done in the US - Exposure to tariffs from Taiwan (32%) and India (27%), but no material exposure to China [6][7] - SHLS (Shoals Technologies Group) and ARRY (Array Technologies): - Both companies are largely insulated from reciprocal tariffs, with SHLS sourcing 90% of its materials from the US [6][7] - FLNC (Fluence Energy): - Approximately 50% of revenue from the US, with potential gross margin headwinds due to tariffs on Chinese imports [6][7] Additional Insights - Revenue Concentration: - The report includes a table showing the percentage of revenue derived from the US for various companies from 2021 to 2024, indicating a strong reliance on the US market [9] - Long-term Outlook: - If reciprocal tariffs remain at current levels, pricing benefits for FSLR could start accruing in 2027, potentially leading to a 10% to 15% upside in estimates [6][7] - Market Positioning: - GEV is noted to be better positioned relative to peers that rely on international manufacturing facilities due to strong demand and pricing power [6][7] Conclusion - The clean tech sector in North America is facing challenges due to tariffs, but certain companies like FSLR and GEV are positioned to benefit in the long term. The analysis highlights the importance of domestic manufacturing and pricing power in mitigating tariff impacts.