美国半导体行业：2025 年第一季度笔记本电脑出货量高于季节性水平。虽有好消息，但我们察觉到库存积压。重申对超威半导体（AMD）和英特尔（INTC）的中性评级

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: US Semiconductors - Key Companies: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel Corporation (INTC) Core Insights and Arguments 1. Notebook Shipments Performance: - March notebook shipments increased by 39% month-over-month, driven by pull-in demand to mitigate tariffs [2][7] - Overall 1Q25 notebook shipments were down 6% quarter-over-quarter, better than the expected decline of 10% and above the normal seasonal decline of 14% [1][8] 2. Impact of Tariffs: - The demand driven by tariffs is seen as a near-term positive for notebook-exposed companies like AMD (17% of sales) and INTC (33% of sales) [1][4] - However, there is concern that this demand may lead to a CPU inventory build, especially after a 10% quarter-over-quarter growth in AMD and Intel CPUs in 4Q24, while overall PC units declined by 1% [1][11] 3. Future Expectations: - A below seasonal increase of 7% quarter-over-quarter in notebook shipments is expected for 2Q25, which is lower than the normal seasonal increase of 9% [3][9] 4. Investment Ratings: - The company maintains a Neutral rating on both AMD and Intel, indicating a cautious outlook despite the recent positive shipment data [1][4][12] Additional Important Points 1. Market Dynamics: - The semiconductor market is highly competitive, with AMD directly competing with Intel in the microprocessor market and with NVIDIA in the graphics and AI GPU market [14] - Fluctuations in market share between these companies could significantly impact estimates and valuations [14][20] 2. Revenue Sources: - AMD derives approximately 20% of its sales from the PC industry, which is sensitive to IT spending trends [15] - A significant portion of AMD's revenue (15%) comes from major clients like Sony and Microsoft, making it vulnerable to changes in their order volumes [15] 3. Valuation Metrics: - AMD's target price is set at $110.00, reflecting a valuation of 28 times the estimated EPS for C26, which is at the lower end of its historical range [13] - Intel's target price is set at $21.00, reflecting a valuation of 13 times the estimated EPS for C26, which is below the average trading range for semiconductor companies [18] 4. Risks: - Both companies face risks from competition, customer dependency, and macroeconomic factors that could affect their performance and stock prices [19][21] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the semiconductor industry, the performance of major companies, and the potential risks and opportunities ahead.