近期氨纶行业回顾与景气展望

Summary of the Spandex Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the spandex industry, particularly the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions and the current market dynamics affecting supply and demand in the spandex sector [2][15][22]. Key Points and Arguments - Demand Growth: Spandex demand is projected to grow by 20% in 2023 and 12% in 2024, driven by products such as sun-protective clothing and sports underwear [2][11]. - Supply-Demand Imbalance: Despite the growth in demand, there is a persistent supply-demand mismatch leading to intense competition and declining prices, with many companies reporting net losses [2][3]. - Production Capacity: Global spandex production capacity is expected to reach 1.75 million tons by the end of 2024, with Asia accounting for 94% of this capacity, primarily driven by China [3][4]. - Price Trends: The price of spandex in China has been declining, with the 40D specification expected to drop to 24,000 RMB per ton by the end of 2024 [3][7]. - Trade Impact: The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have led to a decrease in China's exports to the U.S., affecting the spandex demand within the textile and apparel sectors [15][17][18]. - Inventory Levels: By the end of 2024, spandex inventory levels increased by 11%, averaging 50 days of stock, indicating a buildup due to lower demand and production adjustments [10][19]. - Market Segmentation: The highest demand for spandex comes from circular knitting, accounting for nearly 40% of consumption, followed by package yarn [12]. Additional Important Insights - Raw Material Costs: The upstream raw materials for spandex production, such as PTMEG and pure MDI, are experiencing significant cash flow losses, with BDO and PTMEG reporting losses of approximately 1,700 RMB/ton and 1,200 RMB/ton, respectively [3][6]. - Future Outlook: The spandex industry is expected to face challenges from trade wars, cost pressures, and market competition, necessitating a focus on policy changes and market dynamics [8][22]. - Technological Advancements: There is a growing emphasis on integrating green technologies, such as bio-based and biodegradable materials, to enhance sustainability within the industry [23]. - Consumer Trends: Post-pandemic trends indicate a shift towards comfort and functionality in clothing, which is expected to support spandex demand in the coming years [28]. Conclusion The spandex industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by growth in demand, significant supply challenges, and external pressures from trade policies. Companies are encouraged to adapt to these dynamics while exploring innovative solutions to enhance their competitive edge in the market.