2025-04-23 01:48Summary of Conference Call on Fluff Pulp Industry Industry Overview - The fluff pulp market is facing a price increase pressure of 20%-30% due to supply constraints [1] - High-end fluff pulp is made from softwood and is suitable for baby diapers, while mid-range fluff pulp is used for regular sanitary napkins, with differences in raw materials and performance [1] - Imported fluff pulp, primarily from North America and Northern Europe, has superior fiber length and strength compared to domestic materials [1][5] - China relies heavily on imports for fluff pulp due to the scarcity of softwood resources [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - Current fluff pulp prices are approximately $1,050 per ton for IPH and around 8,100-8,200 RMB per ton for domestic softwood pulp [1][7] - If tariffs remain unchanged, domestic prices are expected to exceed 9,000 RMB, while imported products may reach around 12,000 RMB [1][7] - New production capacities are being introduced both domestically and internationally, which may alleviate supply tightness [1][8] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The fluff pulp supply chain is under pressure due to the U.S.-China trade war, which has increased import costs by about 50% [2] - Domestic companies are responding to rising costs by building new factories and managing inventory [9][10] - The majority of high-quality fluff pulp is concentrated in North America and Northern Europe, with China producing only a small fraction of its annual demand of approximately 1 million tons [6] Downstream Impact - Downstream companies, including those producing baby diapers and sanitary products, are significantly affected by rising costs [2][11] - The cost of fluff pulp constitutes about 10% of the total production cost for female hygiene products, allowing for some buffer against price increases [12] - Companies are currently observing market conditions and managing inventory levels to mitigate immediate impacts [12][14] Future Considerations - The price volatility of fluff pulp will test the supply chain management capabilities of downstream brands [13] - Smaller companies may face greater pressure and could pause production plans if they continue to rely on imported materials [13][14] - It is recommended to monitor fluff pulp price fluctuations and adjust procurement strategies to ensure supply chain stability [15]