宏观必看图表：黄金_美股比值接近11年阻力水平

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis primarily focuses on the macroeconomic environment, particularly the gold and silver markets, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the U.S. stock market performance. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Silver Market Outlook - Analysts predict a potential decline in silver prices in the coming weeks, citing failed resistance breaks in October 2024 and March 2025. A successful third breakout is anticipated but requires strong momentum, which is currently lacking. The final low point may not occur until mid-June 2025, with expectations for a significant rebound in the second half of 2025 [1][1][1]. 2. U.S. Gold Reserves - There is speculation that the U.S. Treasury may have been quietly accumulating gold, potentially influencing recent price changes. This possibility cannot be ruled out [3][3][3]. 3. U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market has seen significant movements, with a notable adjustment in tariff policies by Trump linked to the 10-year Treasury yield reaching approximately 4.5%. The yield is now rising despite stock market declines, indicating ongoing economic growth concerns [5][5][5]. 4. Liquidity Interventions - The U.S. Treasury may increase unconventional debt buybacks as a liquidity measure, amidst declining economic growth expectations and a falling Citigroup Economic Surprise Index [7][7][7]. 5. Foreign Investor Behavior - Foreign investors have rapidly sold U.S. corporate bonds at the fastest pace in five years, raising concerns about long-term sustainability and the need for higher risk premiums to attract bond investors [10][10][10]. 6. Gold Price Projections - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce in the long term, with current high premiums in China indicating strong demand [13][13][13]. 7. Market Volatility - Historical data shows that gold's weekly volatility could exceed $1,000 per ounce if similar conditions from the 1980s recur, suggesting traders should prepare for significant price swings [16][16][16]. 8. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) - The LEI has dropped to -0.7%, indicating a potential economic slowdown. This data typically correlates with the S&P 500 index, but recent divergences raise questions about government interventions to support the economy [18][18][18]. 9. Oil Demand and Inventory Trends - Oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in April, surpassing market expectations, while financial demand remains at a historical low. This discrepancy highlights the importance of economic expectations over immediate demand data [21][21][21]. 10. Stock Market Performance Under Trump - Since Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, the S&P 500 has declined by 14.0%, marking the worst performance for any president in their first 100 days since 1900 [25][25][25]. 11. Market Reset Length - The current bear market has reset over 242 trading days, which is below the historical median of 400 days, indicating a potentially shorter recovery period [27][27][27]. 12. Gold to S&P 500 Ratio - The gold to S&P 500 ratio is nearing an 11-year resistance level, suggesting a potential pullback before a significant upward movement in 2026 if it breaks above 0.70 [29][29][29]. 13. Market Sell Pressure - The sell pressure in the U.S. stock market remains orderly, with the volatility index (VIX) around 35, indicating no panic selling has occurred yet [34][34][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The analysis emphasizes the interconnectedness of various markets, including commodities, bonds, and equities, and highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and investor behavior for future investment strategies.