Jefferies：中美第一季度影响探讨

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Cosmetics, Household & Personal Care - Key Companies Discussed: L'Oreal, Kao (4452 JP), Kose (4922 JP), Shiseido (4911 JP) [1][2] Core Insights - US Market Outlook: The outlook for the US cosmetics market remains uncertain, particularly in the makeup segment, which is experiencing weakness. There was a notable drop in demand in the second half of March, influenced by Latino consumer dynamics [5][6]. - China Market Dynamics: The Chinese market is described as flat, with local companies, including smaller players, gaining market share, especially in the Consumer/Mass market category. Travel retail sales for L'Oreal were down approximately 8% in Q1 [3][4]. - Growth Projections: L'Oreal's growth guidance for the Chinese market is considered optimistic at 4-5%, with a more realistic expectation of 2-3% for FY25 [4]. Additional Important Points - Tariff Impact: L'Oreal indicated that 50% of its US sales are manufactured domestically, with manageable tariff impacts on cost of goods sold (COGS). The tariff can be passed through at a retail price increase of 3-4% depending on the product portfolio [6]. - Upcoming Briefings: Key Q1 briefings for Kao, Kose, and Shiseido are scheduled for May 8, May 9, and May 12, respectively, which may provide further insights into the market conditions [1][2].