锑板块：锑价有望见底回升！

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Antimony and Related Markets Antimony Price Dynamics - Recent increase in bromine prices has compressed antimony price potential: Bromine prices rose by 16,000 CNY/ton, which, due to a cost ratio of 3:1 with antimony, effectively limited the potential increase in antimony prices by 50,000 CNY/ton, leading to market expectations being constrained and small traders selling off, accelerating the price decline [1][2][4] - Antimony exports have decreased significantly, but potential demand remains strong: Antimony exports fell by 45%-50% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, but some antimony oxide was exported in the form of flame retardant masterbatch, which was not accounted for. A recovery in exports is expected post-May Day, alongside stricter export audits, which may push antimony prices upward [1][5] Zinc Market Insights - Significant decline in zinc imports indicates potential price rebound: Zinc imports dropped by 80%-90% year-on-year in March, with the decline expanding. This reduction, combined with increased exports and alleviated cost pressures, suggests that zinc prices have likely bottomed out and may see an upward trend in May [1][6] Photovoltaic Glass Market Stability - Stable production levels in the photovoltaic glass sector: Despite a slowdown in installations, weekly production remains at 540,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2%. Profit margins are still positive, indicating that the industry is not in a state of significant loss. Production is expected to remain stable post-531 [1][7][9] Key Factors Influencing Antimony Prices - Supply-demand tightness supports antimony prices: Antimony prices only fell by 12% last year despite export controls and weak demand, indicating a stronger-than-expected supply-demand tightness. China accounts for half of global antimony supply, with leading companies controlling significant market shares [1][3][8] - Impact of Myanmar earthquake on supply: The earthquake in Myanmar has halted mining operations for at least six months, affecting supply to the European and American markets. Recovery in overseas demand post-trade war may drive prices higher [1][3][13] Investment Opportunities - Antimony sector valuations are low, presenting investment opportunities: Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise above 300,000 CNY, with companies like Huaxi Nonferrous, Huayu Mining, and Hunan Gold being undervalued and worthy of attention [1][3][11][12][14] Conclusion - The antimony market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of price pressures from bromine costs, export dynamics, and supply constraints due to external factors like natural disasters. The photovoltaic glass market remains stable, and there are promising investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the antimony sector.