BERNSTEIN：2025 年第一季度中国消费动态：在脆弱复苏中平衡刺激支持与关税压力

Summary of China Consumer Pulse 1Q25 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese consumer market and highlights the fragile recovery in consumer sentiment across various sectors, including premium beverages, apparel, luxury goods, autos, travel, and home appliances [2][30]. Key Insights 1. Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends - Chinese consumer sentiment shows signs of a fragile recovery with experiential spending leading the way, particularly in restaurant activity and travel [30][32]. - Restaurant app usage increased by 26% YoY, and travel during Chinese New Year and Qing Ming saw increases of 9% and 6% respectively [4][32]. 2. Channel Performance - Digital channels significantly outperform traditional retail, with e-commerce beauty sales growing by 12.7% and apparel platforms by 14% [2][32]. - Physical retail continues to struggle, indicating a stark divergence in channel performance [30]. 3. Premium Segment Dynamics - The luxury goods sector shows mixed signals, with consumers becoming more discerning and holding back on spending amid economic uncertainty [6][32]. - Premium beverages maintain stable pricing, while high-end hotels outperform the broader market [30][32]. - Premium auto sales have deteriorated significantly, down 13.5% YoY [7][32]. 4. Home Appliances and Export Strength - The home appliance sector showed solid performance with air conditioner shipments growing 16% YoY, primarily driven by strong export demand [11][12][32]. - Recent tariff announcements raise concerns about the sustainability of this growth [12][32]. 5. Macroeconomic Factors - Persistent deflation (-0.1% CPI) and escalating trade tensions contribute to cautious consumer behavior, with expectations of lower prices leading to delayed purchases [3][30]. - The Q1 PMI improved, but anticipated contraction in April indicates fragile business confidence [3][30]. 6. Outlook and Risks - The recovery remains fragile and vulnerable to reversal due to economic uncertainty, deflationary pressures, and escalating US-China trade tensions [30][32]. - Any acceleration in government stimulus could potentially support consumer spending [3][30]. Additional Insights - Travel Industry: The travel sector showed resilience with a 7% growth in travelers, despite challenges in outbound travel due to incidents in Southeast Asia [9][23]. - Cosmetics Sector: Beauty eCommerce tracked companies showed a recovery with Gross Merchandise Value growing 12.7%, but concerns about sustainability remain due to weak macroeconomic indicators [10][32]. - Automotive Sector: In Q1 2025, EV sales increased by 34.7% YoY, with penetration reaching 46.1%, indicating a strong shift towards electric vehicles [7][28]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities and challenges within the Chinese consumer market, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of economic indicators and consumer behavior trends.