XD INC(02400)2025-04-30 02:08Summary of the Conference Call for Xindong Company Company Overview - Xindong Company primarily consists of two business segments: TapTap platform (game community and distribution channel, approximately 30% of revenue) and game business (approximately 70% of revenue) [2][4] Key Points and Arguments - In 2024, Xindong Company launched two core games, "Start Your Adventure, Muffin" and "Xindong Town," which exceeded expectations. "Start Your Adventure, Muffin" generated total revenue of 1.6 billion RMB, with confirmed income of about 1.5 billion RMB; "Xindong Town" confirmed revenue of less than 300 million RMB by year-end, with a total revenue of approximately 400 million RMB [2][7] - The success of "Start Your Adventure, Muffin" is attributed to its casual gameplay and social attributes, which reduced player churn, showcasing the company's experience in developing team-based idle games [2][10] - In 2025, "Start Your Adventure, Muffin" underperformed in the Japanese market, and the domestic version faces downward pressure, while "Xindong Town" is expected to contribute an additional 300-400 million RMB domestically, potentially offsetting overall declines [2][12][13] - Older games like "Sausage Party" are expected to see a natural decline of about 10%, while "Bellflower Sword" may see a 50% drop in revenue. However, "Torchlight" is expected to exceed last year's revenue of 300 million RMB due to shortened season cycles and content updates [2][12] Financial Performance - Xindong Company's 2024 financial performance met market expectations, but stock prices fell due to discrepancies between operational data and market forecasts. Future game revenue may show fluctuations, presenting investment opportunities [3] - TapTap platform's monthly active users (MAU) were approximately 44 million in 2024, with expectations for double-digit revenue growth in 2025 and profit margins increasing from 25% in 2024 to around 30% in 2025, potentially yielding profits of 500 million RMB or more [5][28] Market and Valuation Insights - TapTap platform's MAU showed resilience despite a decline in advertising investment. The company experienced a valuation and performance downturn but saw a recovery in 2024 due to a strong product cycle [6] - The valuation for Xindong Company is projected between 14 billion to 20 billion RMB, with a PE ratio of 10 to 15 times, depending on the performance of new games like "Ise" [30] Future Game Releases and Expectations - The new game "Ise" is expected to launch in June 2025, with revenue contributions estimated at 300 million RMB if performance is average, and up to 1 billion RMB if successful [5][16] - Xindong Company plans to continue expanding its self-developed team, currently consisting of over 700 members, and aims to launch one to two new projects in 2025 [19][20] Additional Considerations - The company is focusing on enhancing user engagement on the TapTap platform, with strategies to improve user stickiness and maintain a balance between ad loading rates and user growth [26] - The overall game business is expected to grow by 20% in 2025, with a stable profit margin projected between 60% to 65% [29] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding Xindong Company and its operational landscape, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the gaming industry.