未知机构：中信策略5月观点可以参考下预计市场风险偏好会有所回升不过鉴于经济层面的不确定-20250506

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese market and its economic conditions, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade war and its implications for investment strategies. Core Points and Arguments - Market Risk Appetite: The market risk appetite is expected to recover, although economic uncertainties have become apparent, as indicated by the weakening of China's April PMI data and the anticipated depletion of excess consumer spending in the U.S. within 1-2 months [1][3] - Focus on High Certainty Trends: The strategy emphasizes focusing on three high-certainty trends despite the ongoing trade war and economic uncertainties [1][3] - Chinese Technological Self-Reliance: The enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities is highlighted as the foremost trend [2][4] - Trade Facts Over Expectations: The principle of "trading facts rather than expectations" is underscored, suggesting that the prices of global mainstream risk assets have returned to their original levels due to the trade war [3][5] - Potential for Risk Appetite Recovery: There is an expectation for further recovery in risk appetite, with A-shares likely to exhibit characteristics of warming risk sentiment and thematic rotation, focusing on low institutional holdings [5] - Economic Variables in Q2: It is anticipated that new variables may emerge affecting the Sino-American economy towards the end of Q2 [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - European Defense and Resource Trends: The strategy also notes the unwavering trend of Europe rebuilding its defense capabilities and enhancing energy, infrastructure, and resource reserves [5] - China's Dual Circulation Strategy: The necessity for China to advance its "dual circulation" strategy, which involves improving social security and stimulating domestic demand, is emphasized as a policy imperative [5]