策略周论：暗藏的变化

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global market dynamics influenced by tariff impacts, particularly focusing on the U.S. and Chinese markets, as well as the performance of various asset classes including equities and commodities like gold. Core Points and Arguments - Tariff Impact Recovery: The Japanese and U.S. stock markets rebounded after the elimination of tariff impacts, surpassing pre-tariff levels by May 2, indicating that the influence of tariffs on stock markets has been largely repaired [1][2] - Resilience of Chinese Assets: Despite a weaker performance post-tariff impact, the decline in trade dependency on the U.S. has provided resilience to Chinese assets, which the market has not fully priced in yet [1][3] - U.S. Stock Market Ambiguity: The U.S. stock market has shown mixed signals, with non-farm data exceeding expectations leading to new highs, but disappointing GDP data and political factors have resulted in a fragile rebound, potentially delaying interest rate cuts [1][4][5] - China's Policy Response: China is enhancing cooperation with non-U.S. economies and signaling engagement with the U.S., while also expected to introduce domestic demand policies to counter external trade uncertainties [1][6] - Macroeconomic Volatility Forecast: By Q2 2025, macroeconomic volatility in the U.S. is expected to increase, with China clarifying external negotiation outcomes and implementing domestic policies, contributing to heightened global market fluctuations [1][7] - Downstream Profit Recovery: Since 2022, there has been a gradual recovery in profitability in downstream sectors, with midstream sectors also beginning to stabilize, attracting market attention towards companies performing well in the domestic demand sector [1][8] - Gold Market Transition: The demand for gold in China has weakened due to the recovery of RMB assets, leading to a potential shift of funds back to RMB assets. After a recent correction, gold is expected to enter a transitional phase and gradually stabilize [1][9] - Small and Mid-Cap Stock Trends: Small-cap stocks with high valuations and growth potential have seen significant gains, but the sustainability of this trend is uncertain. AI is identified as a major industry trend, although current data from listed companies does not reflect this [1][10] - Focus on Domestic Demand: There is a preference for investing in China's domestic demand sectors, including consumer and core consumer assets, while also considering industrial capital goods and key stocks like banks and insurance [1][11] - Market Sentiment on Growth Stocks: The market sentiment is leaning towards a volatile structural shift, favoring heavyweight stocks while maintaining caution towards small and mid-cap growth stocks due to their lower expected sustainability and volatility resistance [1][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of various markets, with a strong emphasis on the need for policy adjustments in response to external pressures and internal economic conditions [1][7][11]