巴克莱：中国展望：贸易战冲击，谈判之门敞开

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of the ongoing trade war between the US and China on the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the manufacturing sector and employment dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Deterioration in Manufacturing Sector: The NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in April, indicating contraction and missing expectations significantly (Bloomberg consensus: 49.7, Barclays: 50.2) [7][10][15] 2. Employment Risks: Approximately 3% of total employment in China, equating to around 20 million jobs, is estimated to be at risk due to the trade war, particularly affecting export-related jobs [15][16] 3. Trade Talks Potential: China has indicated a willingness to engage in trade talks with the US, contingent upon the removal of unilateral tariffs, suggesting a potential for de-escalation in tensions [2][3][4] 4. Export Resilience: Despite the trade war, exports remained resilient in April, likely due to exporters front-loading shipments before higher tariffs took effect [8][25] 5. Shipping Industry Disruption: High-frequency indicators show a significant decline in container ship departures from China to the US, with estimates indicating a drop of over 40% year-on-year for the week of May 4-10 [9][12] 6. Deflationary Pressures: The trade war has intensified deflationary pressures in China, with output prices PMI dropping to 44.8 in April, indicating potential erosion of corporate profits [17][19] 7. Sector-Specific Impacts: The services PMI fell to 50.3, with notable contractions in waterway transportation and capital markets, while some sectors like aviation and IT services remained robust [22][23] 8. Construction Sector Dynamics: The construction PMI decreased to 51.9, with new orders hitting a low since September, although civil engineering projects showed signs of improvement [24] Additional Important Insights 1. Trade and Inflation Data: Upcoming trade data is expected to show a 5% increase in exports for April, while imports are projected to decline by 6% year-on-year [25] 2. Government Bond Issuance: Local governments have accelerated special bond issuance, reaching over 27% of the full-year quota, contrasting with 18.5% in the same period last year [24] 3. Consumer Behavior: The upcoming Labor Day holiday is anticipated to boost domestic travel, with passenger volumes expected to reach record highs [23] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and potential opportunities within the Chinese economy amid the ongoing trade tensions.