大摩宏观闭门会议：从贸易到科技，谁主沉浮

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the U.S.-China trade relations, emerging technologies in China, and the implications of currency fluctuations on global investments. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Weakening Dollar and Asset Diversification The weakening of the dollar reflects a reassessment of dollar asset allocation strategies by investors, leading Asian financial institutions and exporters to hedge their dollar assets, which may promote asset diversification and reduce over-reliance on the dollar [1][3][24]. 2. U.S.-China Tariff Negotiations There are signs of potential easing in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with expectations of partial agreements by the second half of the year, potentially lowering effective tariff rates to 30-40% by year-end, although full tariff removal remains unlikely [1][4][5][10]. 3. China's Emerging Technology Resilience China's emerging industries, particularly in AI, semiconductors, new materials, and new manufacturing, demonstrate strong resilience. The self-sufficiency index of China's AI hardware ecosystem has improved, indicating competitive strength in emerging tech sectors [1][6][13]. 4. Future U.S. Tariff Policies U.S. tariff policies may shift towards industry-specific assessments, targeting strategic materials like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Companies need to consider restructuring supply chains and investment cycles to navigate uncertainties [1][7][10]. 5. China's Economic Stimulus Plans China is expected to implement economic stimulus measures, potentially introducing 1 to 1.5 trillion RMB in new plans focused on manufacturing upgrades and urban infrastructure by July [1][8][12]. 6. Impact of Tariff Adjustments on Financial Markets The anticipated reduction in U.S.-China tariffs is expected to benefit financial markets, although long-term investment decisions by companies remain uncertain [1][10][11]. 7. Challenges Facing China's Economy China's economy faces significant challenges, including a slowdown in GDP growth, particularly in exports, due to tariffs. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates a notable decline, especially in new export orders [1][11][22]. 8. Long-term Potential of China's Tech Industry Despite facing deflationary pressures and export risks, China's tech industry shows strong potential, driven by factors such as R&D investment, talent supply, and market demand [1][13][38]. 9. AI Development and Chip Supply Issues China's AI development may slow due to chip supply constraints, but it is unlikely to halt completely. The domestic chip production is gradually increasing, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years [1][34][35]. 10. Investor Sentiment and Market Positioning Global investors are currently cautious, reducing exposure to Chinese equities amid ongoing trade tensions. The sentiment reflects a broader trend of risk aversion in the market [1][26][30]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Limited Impact of Transshipment Trade Transshipment trade's ability to offset tariff impacts is limited, accounting for only 3-4% of China's total exports, which is significantly lower than the U.S. export ratio [1][18][19]. 2. Currency Adjustments and Export Dynamics Currency adjustments, particularly the depreciation of the dollar, have a significant impact on China's exports, with a noted 30-40% drop in container volumes to the U.S. since mid-April [1][20][17]. 3. Policy Responses to Economic Pressures The Chinese government is likely to focus on investment-driven growth strategies to counteract export declines, emphasizing infrastructure and industrial upgrades [1][21][12]. 4. Cautious Interpretation of Consumer Data Recent consumer data from the May Day holiday should be interpreted cautiously due to noise factors, and it is unlikely to alter the fundamental impacts of tariffs on exports and industrial production [1][41].