Jefferies：食品研究综述- 美国消费者担忧

Summary of Jefferies Food Research Roundup — U.S. Consumer Concern Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. food industry, highlighting the performance of various companies in the sector amidst worsening consumer sentiment and inflationary pressures [1][13]. Key Companies and Their Performance 1. Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) - Reported its fourth consecutive organic sales miss, with North American volumes down 7.1% year-over-year [2]. - Cut its 2025 guidance due to volume pressure, worsening consumer sentiment, and elevated inflation [2]. - Management noted sequential improvement in North America with innovations and increased marketing investments, but stability signs are still awaited [2]. 2. Mondelez International (MDLZ) - Posted solid Q1 results despite cocoa inflation and macro uncertainties, driven by strong revenue growth management (RGM) activities [3]. - Europe performed well, while North America faced significant pressure [3]. - The company remains focused on long-term health but is rated as HOLD due to cocoa uncertainty [3]. 3. Lancaster Colony Corporation (LANC) - Retail sales showed potential growth excluding product discontinuations and Easter timing [4]. - Foodservice sales declined, indicating a shift in traffic dynamics [4]. 4. Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) - Achieved another impressive quarter, highlighting broad-based category strength and a differentiated business model [5]. - Healthier eating trends continue to support fundamentals, although valuation remains a concern [5]. 5. Utz Brands (UTZ) - Q1 results aligned with preliminary expectations, with notable volume lift and price decline due to the Bonus Bag program [6]. - Management noted volume growth and share gains through market distribution expansion [6]. 6. Kellanova (K) - Experienced a soft Q1 with significant declines in organic sales across North America, Europe, and Latin America [7]. - Management cited negative snacking trends and financial strain affecting consumer behavior [7]. - The Mars deal is expected to close in the first half of the year at $83.50 per share [7]. Market Trends - The U.S. ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal category saw channel volumes fall approximately 4% year-over-year in Q1, with KLG and GIS being the volume laggards [8]. - U.S. food retail sales grew about 4.2% year-over-year, driven by positive volume inflection and pricing acceleration [9]. - The branded food sales index rose approximately 3.2% year-over-year, while private label sales increased by 7.7% [10]. Additional Insights - Retail pressures are evident across the sector, with many companies facing challenges in offsetting consumer softness [4][5]. - The report indicates a potential preference shift towards private label products as consumers seek more affordable options amidst inflation [10][15]. - Average short interest for U.S.-based food companies stood at 5.0%, with notable increases for VITL, HAIN, and LANC [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the Jefferies Food Research Roundup, providing insights into the performance of major companies and overarching market trends within the U.S. food industry.