谈判和政策预期还在，反弹继续

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is in a rebound phase, expected to last for about a month, with a target height of around 3,400 points, followed by a potential second adjustment to around 3,200 points later in June to July [1][5][8] - Compared to 2018-2019, the current economic situation has improved, with a stronger RMB exchange rate and a domestic policy cycle leaning towards stabilizing or even increasing leverage [1][6] - The market is still in a bull market cycle, with tariff shocks being likened to historical black swan events, suggesting a potential recovery of losses from mid-March to early April [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - The rebound is primarily driven by policy expectations and the potential for US-China negotiations, with the market likely to recover most of the declines from late March to early April [2][12] - The current economic conditions are significantly better than in 2018-2019, with improvements in consumer and growth industry profits, and a stabilizing manufacturing sector [6][9] - The market's structural profit-making effect remains, with increasing opportunities in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and robotics [1][9] Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The second adjustment in the market is expected to occur due to the lingering impact of tariffs on corporate profits, despite the market having recovered some index-level impacts [2][5][8] - The current growth stock bull market differs from historical patterns, suggesting a need for internal switching between high and low growth stocks, and a phased allocation to value themes to manage volatility [14][15] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on sectors with growth potential and stable performance, such as new consumption, military, non-ferrous metals, and banking [11][10] Future Market Predictions - The market is anticipated to continue its rebound, with a potential peak around 3,400 points before a second adjustment to approximately 3,200 points [5][16] - The sustainability of the current rebound is contingent on the outcomes of US-China negotiations and domestic policy developments, with close monitoring required for timely strategy adjustments [12][16]