未知机构：麦肯锡-2025年新常态下的中国消费–20250507-20250507

Summary of McKinsey's Research on China's Consumer Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese consumer market and its transition into a "new normal" characterized by single-digit growth since Q2 2025 [4][5]. Key Trends and Insights Trend 1: Acceptance of the New Normal - Chinese consumers are beginning to emerge from a period of low confidence and consumption willingness, adapting to the new normal [4]. - GDP growth in China is projected to remain around 5% in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a cautious consumption growth forecast of 2.3% for 2025, slightly down from 2.4% in 2024 [6]. - Urbanization is progressing, with the urbanization rate increasing from 65.2% in 2022 to 67.0% in 2024, leading to a rise in urban households from 0.4% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025 [6]. - Consumer expectations regarding their consumption as a percentage of income have stabilized, showing an improvement from a decline of -0.5 percentage points to 0.0 [6][8]. Trend 2: Stabilization of Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence has stabilized, with 81% of respondents expressing greater confidence in the macroeconomic outlook after recent stimulus policies [12][13]. - Rural consumers have shown a significant increase in confidence, attributed to government policies and faster income growth, with rural income rising 6.6% compared to 4.5% for urban residents in 2024 [18]. - However, affluent elderly consumers in first-tier cities have seen a 20% decline in confidence due to asset depreciation and poor corporate performance [21]. Trend 3: Focus on Personal Achievement - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing purchases that contribute to personal achievement, with affluent urban consumers planning to increase daily spending by 2.6% in 2025 [26]. - There is a notable shift where spending decisions are more influenced by tangible factors like personal asset value rather than confidence levels [26]. - Categories such as education, health services, and travel are expected to see increased spending, while categories like consumer electronics and home appliances are projected to decline [29][30]. Additional Important Insights - The ongoing US-China trade tensions add uncertainty to the consumer market, but the findings from the research remain relevant for decision-makers [5]. - The complexity and differentiation in the consumer market are increasing, requiring companies to adapt their strategies to align with these changes [32]. - The resilience and adaptability of Chinese consumers present significant opportunities for businesses that can navigate the evolving landscape [32]. Conclusion - The Chinese consumer market is undergoing significant changes, with varying consumption intentions across different demographics. Companies must understand these nuances to capitalize on emerging opportunities in a challenging economic environment [32].