AIMA TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO.(SH:603529)2025-05-07 15:20Summary of Electric Two-Wheeler Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market is expected to grow by 10%-20% in 2025, driven by replacement demand and the implementation of new national standards, with Q2 and Q3 anticipated to be peak seasons, potentially leading to early consumption [1][4][24] - The high-end market remains stable, accounting for about 10% of total sales, and is less affected by consumer downgrading trends [1][21][22] Brand Performance and Growth Expectations - Aima and Niu are expected to grow by approximately 20%, while Ninebot is projected to grow by up to 80% due to product line expansion and channel development [1][6] - Ninebot's strategy of introducing products in the 2000-3000 yuan price range has successfully catered to the trend of consumer downgrading, resulting in significant sales growth [1][16] - In 2024, Ninebot sold 80,000 units, Niu sold 60,000 units, and Aima reached 180,000 units [3] Consumer Preferences and Market Dynamics - Key factors influencing consumer purchasing decisions include range, brand, appearance, and price, with range anxiety being a primary concern [1][11] - The cost of electric vehicles is significantly impacted by battery capacity, with approximately half of the cost attributed to batteries [1][12] - The Shanghai trade-in policy offers a 500 yuan subsidy, but its complexity and limited funding have resulted in low participation from stores [1][17][18] Channel Development and Store Expansion - Aima has around 500 stores, Niu has 160, and Ninebot has 200, totaling approximately 900 stores in Shanghai [2][9] - All three brands are actively expanding their market share and have clear channel development targets for 2025 [8] - Aima's store count is stable, while Niu aims to increase its stores by 30% and Ninebot also plans for a 30% increase [9] Impact of New National Standards - The new national standards are expected to enhance the quality of electric two-wheelers, extending their lifespan from 3-4 years to 5-6 years [1][21][33] - The implementation of these standards has led to improved materials and overall vehicle quality [21] Competitive Landscape and Pricing Strategies - The market is experiencing intensified price wars, with manufacturers lowering prices to clear inventory [28] - The exit of small and medium-sized enterprises from the market is expected to ease price competition, but this may take time [25][29] - Aima's single-vehicle profit margin is around 5%-8%, while Ninebot and Niu achieve margins of 10%-15% [35] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Current consumer willingness to purchase electric bicycles remains strong, with existing models meeting commuting needs in terms of aesthetics, price, and practicality [26] - The market is witnessing a clear trend of consumer downgrading, particularly in mid-range products, while high-end segments remain stable [34] Conclusion - The electric two-wheeler industry is poised for growth in 2025, driven by new policies and consumer trends, with significant differences in brand performance and consumer preferences shaping the competitive landscape [1][4][24]