未知机构：大摩-北京会怎么刺激经济对冲关税影响–20250508-20250508

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and the anticipated economic growth in 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Impact of Tariffs on Growth: The second quarter growth in China may slow down by over 1 percentage point due to tariffs, with a projected GDP growth rate of below 4.5% for Q2, down from 5.4% in Q1 [1][18]. 2. Stimulus Measures: Beijing is expected to implement cautious and uneven stimulus policies, focusing on emerging industries and urban renewal investments, while gradually shifting towards consumer spending in the medium term [1][12]. 3. Tariff Levels: Current tariffs between the U.S. and China are deemed unsustainable, with effective U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 45% (up from 11% before 2025) [3][4]. 4. Potential for Tariff Reduction: There is a possibility of gradual tariff reductions as negotiations between the U.S. and China progress, which could alleviate some economic pressures [2][3]. 5. GDP Forecast Adjustments: If tariffs remain at current levels, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 may be adjusted downwards by 0.5 percentage points, with significant impacts on exports [4][11]. 6. Investment Focus: The Chinese government is likely to maintain a focus on investment-driven growth, despite calls for a shift towards consumption, due to perceived uncertainties regarding the multiplier effects of consumption policies [12][14]. 7. Economic Stimulus Plans: A total of 2 trillion RMB in central bank-approved stimulus measures is anticipated, although the implementation remains passive and reactive to external shocks [11][19]. 8. Long-term Economic Strategy: The government aims to achieve high-quality growth through regulated local government investments and infrastructure upgrades, despite a decline in overall investment returns [15][16]. Other Important Content - Employment and Domestic Spending: The high tariffs are expected to have secondary effects on domestic employment and consumer spending, contributing to ongoing deflationary pressures [11][19]. - Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment remains cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and the effectiveness of stimulus measures [11][12]. - Sector-Specific Impacts: Certain sectors, particularly those reliant on exports to the U.S., may face significant challenges due to the high tariffs and potential for further trade disruptions [4][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, economic growth, and government policy in China.