YPF(US:YPF)2025-05-08 15:00Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1,240 million, reflecting a sequential growth of 48% due to divestment in mature fields and improved refining and marketing margins [7][13][14] - Revenue for Q1 was $4,610 million, showing a 3% sequential decline but a 7% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by shale activity and higher local fuel prices [12][13] - The net result was a loss of $10 million, significantly improved from a loss of $284 million in Q4 last year, attributed to higher adjusted EBITDA and lower one-off costs [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shale oil production increased by 31% year-over-year, now representing 55% of total oil production, with total hydrocarbon production rising by approximately 5% [8][18] - The downstream segment achieved a record high refining utilization of 94%, processing 318,000 barrels per day, and refining margins increased by 28% sequentially to $14.3 per barrel [9][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil exports to Chile grew by 34% year-over-year, reaching 36,000 barrels per day, while natural gas production increased by 9% sequentially [19][20] - Local fuel prices increased by 2% sequentially and 1% year-over-year, with the company maintaining a market share of 56% [25][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has restructured its business segments, splitting the Gas and Power segment into LNG and Integrated Gas and New Energies, and reallocating midstream gas business [6] - The focus remains on increasing shale production and operational efficiency, with plans to replicate real-time intelligence centers across other refineries [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current uncertain price environment, indicating a breakeven level of $60 per barrel for EBITDA [37][39] - The company anticipates continued growth in shale production and aims to achieve an annual target of over 165,000 barrels per day [18][23] Other Important Information - The company signed multiple MOUs and agreements to advance LNG projects, with expectations for operational vessels by 2027 and 2028 [10][11][12] - CapEx for Q1 was $1,210 million, with 75% allocated to unconventional assets, aligning with the annual guidance of $5 billion to $5.2 billion [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current resilience amid price uncertainty and breakeven levels - Management indicated that every $10 reduction in oil prices impacts EBITDA by approximately $900 million, with a required CapEx of $2 billion to maintain current production levels [37][39] Question: Flexibility on CapEx and potential buyer financing issues - Management stated that they would adjust their plans if necessary but are currently not in a position to make drastic changes due to market volatility [42][43] Question: Impact of mature asset divestments on cash flow - The company reported a $230 million cash flow impact from mature assets, with expectations of minimal further impact as divestments progress [48][50] Question: Steps for final investment decisions on LNG projects - Management outlined that FID for the Southern Energy JV is expected by July, with ongoing processes for other LNG projects [51][52] Question: Fuel pricing strategy and market share expectations - The pricing strategy is aligned with international market conditions, and the company expects to maintain its market share despite price adjustments [56][57] Question: Update on Vaca Muerta Sur and pipeline negotiations - Management confirmed timelines for production increases and ongoing negotiations for gas pipeline investments, emphasizing the importance of favorable tariffs [60][62]