YPF(US:YPF)2025-05-08 15:02Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.24 billion for Q1 2025, reflecting a significant sequential growth of 48% [7][14] - Revenue for Q1 was $4.61 billion, showing a 3% sequential decline but a 7% year-over-year increase [13][14] - The net result was a loss of $10 million, an improvement from a loss of $284 million in Q4 2024 [16][17] - CapEx for Q1 was $1.21 billion, with 75% allocated to unconventional assets, aligning with the annual guidance of $5 billion to $5.2 billion [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shale oil production increased by 31% year-over-year, now representing 55% of total oil production [9][19] - The downstream segment achieved a record refining utilization rate of 94%, processing 318,000 barrels per day [10][27] - The company signed an MOU with Globant to accelerate digital transformation, focusing on AI implementation [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil export to Chile grew by 34% year-over-year, reaching 36,000 barrels per day [20] - Natural gas production increased by 9% sequentially, delivering over 37 million cubic meters per day [20] - Local fuel prices increased by 2% sequentially and 1% year-over-year, while the market share remained at 56% [26][27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on reducing exposure to mature fields and enhancing shale production as part of its four-pillar plan [7][19] - A new business structure was implemented in 2025, splitting the Gas and Power segment into LNG and Integrated Gas and New Energies [6] - The company aims to achieve an annual average Brent price of $72.5 per barrel for 2025 [16][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resilience amid price volatility, indicating a breakeven level of $60 per barrel for EBITDA [39] - The company anticipates a reduction in leverage as it divests from mature fields, expecting to reach a net leverage ratio of 1.5 to 1.6 times by year-end [34][72] - Future CapEx adjustments will depend on market conditions, with management indicating flexibility in response to price changes [45][73] Other Important Information - The company reported a negative free cash flow of $957 million in Q1, primarily due to the performance of mature fields [18][31] - The company is actively refinancing its debt, with a focus on local market opportunities [92] - The LNG projects are progressing, with FID expected for the Southern Energy JV by July 2025 [51][82] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current Brent breakeven level in terms of EBITDA and cash flow - Management indicated that every $10 reduction in Brent results in a $900 million impact on EBITDA, with a breakeven level around $60 [39] Question: Required CapEx to maintain current production - The required CapEx to maintain production is estimated at $2 billion [40] Question: Flexibility on CapEx and activity levels amid current oil price scenario - Management stated they would adjust their plans if necessary but are currently not considering changes [44] Question: Impact of divestment of mature assets on cash flow - The impact was around $230 million, with expectations of minimal further impact as divestments progress [49][50] Question: Steps for final investment decision on LNG projects - FID for the Southern Energy JV is expected by July, with ongoing negotiations for other projects [51][52] Question: Fuel pricing strategy and market share expectations - The pricing strategy is aligned with international market conditions, and the company expects to maintain its market share [56] Question: Update on Vaca Muerta Sur and gas pipeline negotiations - The company is on track for initial production by the end of 2026, with ongoing discussions for pipeline investments [60][63] Question: Divestment of Nitro Fuels and production contribution - The production contribution from divested blocks is minimal, with a focus on improving production from Vaca Muerta [66][68] Question: CapEx guidance and affiliate contributions - The $5 billion CapEx guidance does not include contributions to affiliates, which are part of ongoing infrastructure projects [77][80]