对话钨专家：解读钨价上涨

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten market is expected to remain tight in 2025, with no significant increase in supply and stable demand, leading to an optimistic outlook. The average price for the year may reach around 160,000 yuan, with a fluctuation range of 20%-30% [1][7] - In Q1 2025, tungsten exports significantly decreased due to policy adjustments, with a cumulative decline of 27% by March. However, imports increased by 20% year-on-year, with tungsten concentrate imports growing by over 40% [1][3] Key Points on Demand and Supply - The demand for tungsten is expected to increase significantly due to nuclear fusion test reactors, with an estimated demand of over 3,000 tons of metal, accounting for about 5% of total consumption. The acceleration of domestic and international experimental reactor construction and commercialization is driving this demand [1][6] - The first batch of tungsten quotas for 2025 has been reduced by 4,000 tons, marking the largest reduction in five years. The strengthening of the Mineral Resources Law may lead to more policies managing strategic metals, presenting development opportunities for tungsten [1][9] - The Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan is expected to release 2,500-3,000 tons of metal in 2025, but the growth in domestic demand in China may offset this increase, resulting in limited impact on global supply and demand [1][10] Production and Inventory Insights - In Q1 2025, the tungsten industry maintained stable operations, with tungsten concentrate production increasing by less than 1% year-on-year. The hard alloy segment saw a 9.9% increase, indicating a shift in the industry chain focus [2][4] - Current tungsten industry inventory levels are low, with deep processing product increases outpacing raw material growth. Prices are higher than the same period last year, and it is expected that inventory will not see significant increases this year [4][17] Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Tungsten prices increased by 15% year-on-year in Q1, primarily due to the ongoing tight supply-demand situation established in 2023 and 2024. Despite insufficient order saturation, production is still growing, albeit at a slow pace [5][27] - The price increase in 2024 was influenced by geopolitical factors such as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the price increase in 2025 is expected to be driven by domestic demand and regulatory policies [8][9] Export and Import Dynamics - The export of tungsten is approximately 30,000 tons annually, with domestic consumption around 64,000 tons. Exports account for about one-third of total demand, while domestic consumption makes up two-thirds [23] - Hard alloy products, including tools, are not subject to export restrictions, while raw materials require licensing. In 2024, hard alloys accounted for 32% of total exports, with raw materials exceeding 50% [16][25] Future Outlook - The global tungsten production in 2025 is expected to remain flat compared to last year, with limited growth in domestic production offsetting the increase from the Bakuta mine. Demand growth in tungsten materials, chemicals, alloys, and hard alloys is anticipated [32] - There is uncertainty regarding strategic reserve actions for tungsten in 2025, with potential interventions in the market depending on price levels and military supply needs [30][31]