未知机构：AIDC观点更新阿里腾讯最新外资预期口径阿里云-20250512

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the cloud computing and financial technology sectors, specifically focusing on Alibaba and Tencent's performance and expectations for Q1 2025. Alibaba Cloud - Revenue Growth Rate: Expected to range from 15% to 19%, but recent forecasts are converging towards 15% [1] - EBITA Margin: Most foreign investors project a margin of around 10%, consistent with Q4 2024, with a potential upside due to AI business margins being higher than traditional CPU leasing [2] - Capital Expenditure (CAPEX): Anticipated to exceed 35 billion, with domestic expectations being higher than foreign estimates, indicating a quarter-on-quarter acceleration [3] Tencent - Financial Technology Revenue Growth: Overall growth expected to be between 3% and 5% for Q1 2025, with cloud computing business growth projected at 11% to 13% [4] - CAPEX Expectations: Foreign estimates are relatively low, projecting around 80 billion for the year. However, observations indicate that CAPEX for just Q1 could exceed 35 billion, while the official low teen annual forecast remains unchanged [5] Core Insights 1. CAPEX Investment Uncertainty: The investment-output phase for 2023/2024 is unpredictable, with CAPEX serving as a leading indicator. The revenue and operating profit margins from cloud business will only become clear after the GPU instance business model is validated in Q3 2024. CAPEX itself is a result, and any positive surprises will likely elevate capital expenditure expectations [6] 2. Market Sentiment Shift: Post-May Day trends indicate that both the price increase in computing power leasing and the trend towards domestic chip orders suggest that previous market expectations of a decline in domestic CAPEX were overly pessimistic. It is highly probable that cloud providers will not slow down their investments, and an acceleration is likely [7]