Jefferies：追踪全球工业指标

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Multi-Industrials sector in the USA and includes insights on global manufacturing indicators [1][2]. Core Insights - Sentiment Indicators: There has been a decline in sentiment indicators, indicating a high level of uncertainty among companies. Despite this, many companies reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter [2][4]. - Tariff-Related Uncertainty: Companies highlighted concerns regarding tariffs, which have led to limited pre-buying activity. Management teams are looking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through pricing and operational strategies [2][4]. - Manufacturing Activity: Hard data suggests solid manufacturing activity, while soft data indicates worsening manufacturing conditions. The ISM manufacturing PMI has shown contraction for two consecutive months, with a decline in the index for the fourth straight month [3][4][17]. - Future Confidence: Future confidence among manufacturers has dropped to its lowest levels since June 2024, primarily due to supply disruptions and tariff-related cost concerns [2][4]. Key Data Points - Manufacturing PMI: The April ISM manufacturing PMI declined by 0.3 points month-over-month (M/M) [8][49]. - S&P US Manufacturing PMI: Remained flat at 50.2 in April, indicating stagnation in manufacturing activity [8][17]. - Production Trends: Production has fallen for two consecutive months, attributed to tariffs and rising uncertainty affecting export orders and customer spending [2][4]. - Inventory Levels: Increased inventory levels suggest a temporary strategy to avoid tariffs [2][4]. Regional Insights - New York Manufacturing: Current business activity index increased by 12 points M/M, while future business activity index declined by 20 points M/M [65]. - Kansas City Manufacturing: Current and future business activity declined by 2 points and 4 points M/M, respectively [68]. - Richmond Manufacturing: Current and future business activity indexes decreased by 9 points and 15 points M/M, respectively [59]. Global Context - China's Manufacturing: The official China PMI declined by 1.4 points M/M, indicating contraction in output and orders. The Caixin PMI also fell by 0.8 points to 50.4, reflecting a slowdown in export orders [17][74]. - Eurozone Manufacturing: The Eurozone PMI remained in contraction, but the rate of decline moderated, with factory production increasing for the second consecutive month [17][18]. Additional Observations - Investment in Manufacturing: China's investment in manufacturing fixed assets increased by 9.2% year-over-year (Y/Y) [70]. - Industrial Confidence: The EU industrial confidence indicator declined by 0.3 points M/M, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [82][84]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Multi-Industrials sector and its challenges.