降关税之后：市场关注哪些机会？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the impact of US-China tariff adjustments on various industries, including technology, communication, manufacturing, and the internet sector. Core Points and Arguments US-China Tariff Adjustments - The US has reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, including the cancellation of 91% of pressure tariffs and a delay on some reciprocal tariffs, leading to positive market reactions. However, uncertainty remains regarding the full implementation of the 34% reciprocal tariffs [1][2][34]. - The market is optimistic about the potential cancellation of the 20% fentanyl tariff due to China's strict management since 2018, but the 24% delayed reciprocal tariffs are less likely to be removed [2][3]. Domestic Policy Shifts - The Chinese government is adopting an active fiscal policy, including accelerated bond issuance and interest rate cuts, to stabilize growth. This policy response is expected to be quicker than in previous years [1][4]. - Investment opportunities include high-yield assets, overseas expansion, and gold assets due to global order restructuring [1][4]. Stock Market Dynamics - The US-China agreement is expected to enhance market risk appetite, primarily driven by changes in the intrinsic logic of the Chinese stock market, such as declining discount rates and risk-free rates, making equities more attractive [1][5][6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is projected to reach 3,500-3,600 points before July, with the Hang Seng Index expected to hit new highs in the second half of the year [1][6]. Export Chain and Technology Sector - The export chain, particularly in sectors related to Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, is anticipated to recover significantly, supported by favorable liquidity and risk appetite [1][7]. - The technology sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by trends in AI and robotics, which present substantial market opportunities [7]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The investment value of the Hong Kong internet sector has improved due to the easing of US-China geopolitical tensions, with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Key stocks to watch include Alibaba and Kuaishou [1][8][45][46]. Communication Industry - The communication sector has been significantly impacted by tariff changes, with major players experiencing notable adjustments in stock prices. However, strong capital expenditure growth in North America is expected to drive demand for optical modules and related technologies [2][21][23][24][25]. Manufacturing Supply Chain Trends - There is a trend of global manufacturing supply chains relocating to third countries, with China focusing on a "China for China" strategy to serve its domestic market [2][35]. Investment Opportunities - In the current environment, there are promising investment opportunities in financials and high-dividend assets, particularly as risk-free rates decline [9][10]. - Companies with strong overseas production capabilities and those involved in the AI supply chain are recommended for investment [18][20][28][32]. Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market is positive, driven by strong fundamentals in technology and new consumer sectors, alongside increased capital inflows from mainland investors [11][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The impact of the H20 chip ban on domestic cloud manufacturers is significant, affecting their capital expenditure and market expectations [27]. - The home appliance industry is seeing a shift due to tariff reductions, with high-margin products like robotic vacuums gaining competitive advantages [53][54][57][58]. - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing accelerated capacity transfer overseas, particularly to Southeast Asia, driven by economic factors [41][43]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, highlighting the implications of tariff adjustments and domestic policies on various sectors and investment opportunities.