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制造领先:永艺股份、浩洋股份
2025-05-13 15:19

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Companies Involved - Industry: Manufacturing, specifically focusing on export-oriented companies affected by tariffs - Companies: 永艺股份 (Yongyi Co.), 浩洋股份 (Haoyang Co.) Key Points and Arguments Tariff Impact on Export Companies - The U.S. has imposed a 30% tariff on Chinese goods, which includes a 20% increase and an additional 10% tariff. China has also imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. goods. This has short-term operational impacts on export companies, but costs can be shared with downstream customers or passed on to end consumers. [3][4] - After tariffs return to a reasonable level, domestic shipping schedules are expected to normalize, with a recovery in orders anticipated in Q2. However, downstream companies are cautious about inventory levels due to previous high stock phases. [1][4] Company-Specific Insights - 永艺股份 (Yongyi Co.): - Holds an irreplaceable position in the office chair segment, with a strong supply chain that creates customer barriers. Recent orders are optimistic, with the Vietnam factory ramping up shipments to take advantage of tariff windows. Profit margins remain largely unaffected. [1][8] - The 2025 profit forecast is approximately 380 million yuan, with a current valuation of 10 times earnings, indicating a high cost-performance ratio within the export chain. The company is seen as a resilient choice with a dividend yield exceeding 4%. [10] - 浩洋股份 (Haoyang Co.): - Demonstrates cost efficiency and product innovation in stage lighting and performance equipment manufacturing. The company is actively developing new products, such as laser light sources, which are expected to drive long-term growth. [1][11] - The 2025 profit forecast is slightly above 300 million yuan, with a current valuation of about 14 times earnings, which is considered low compared to historical levels. The sentiment in U.S. business is improving, which is a positive factor for overall export sentiment. [13][14] Long-term Outlook and Valuation - Export companies are experiencing a valuation drop due to tariff pressures, but those with strong core advantages and a high proportion of overseas factories, like Yongyi and Haoyang, are less affected. Their valuations are now aligned with growth potential, making them suitable for long-term investment. [5][12] - The long-term growth drivers for Haoyang are expected to shift more towards proprietary brands and laser products rather than OEM business, which will enhance profitability and optimize product structure. [12] Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment regarding orders is improving as the actual burden of tariffs on end consumers is expected to be minimal. This could lead to a further recovery in order expectations in the short term. [9] - The selection of export chain companies should prioritize those with high growth potential, especially in the context of changing tariff environments. [15]