对话资深外贸专家：关税暂缓后如何看待出口后续？

Summary of Conference Call on China-US Trade Relations Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the China-US trade relations and the impact of tariffs on China's export sector and overall economy [1][3][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Tariff Agreement Impact: The temporary tariff reduction agreement between China and the US is expected to alleviate pressures on Chinese exports, unemployment, and business closures, although at least 30% tariffs remain in place [1][3][4]. 2. Current Tariff Burden: Chinese foreign trade enterprises are managing the 30% tariffs by sharing costs, effectively absorbing about 15% of the losses. Labor-intensive goods continue to face challenges [1][6][12]. 3. Future Negotiation Risks: If negotiations fail in the next three months, the US may impose punitive tariffs that could raise the total tariff burden to 54% or higher, significantly impacting Chinese exports [1][7][8]. 4. Export Growth Projections: In Q2 2025, China's exports are projected to grow by 3% to 5%, with sales remaining above 5% in April. The economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of no less than 5% [1][9][26]. 5. Trade Surplus Concerns: The significant trade surplus China has with the US (approximately $380 billion) has led to US demands for structural adjustments in China's trade practices [1][10][11]. 6. Market Diversification: Chinese companies are encouraged to explore new markets to reduce reliance on the US, with a focus on Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe [1][9][12][19]. 7. Domestic Consumption Issues: Weak domestic consumption limits the effectiveness of increasing imports. Measures to boost consumer spending and income levels are critical [2][15][24]. 8. Challenges in Import Expansion: While expanding imports is essential, achieving significant increases is complicated by domestic consumption issues and the need for clear commitments [15][22]. 9. Trade Balance Solutions: The US is pushing for China to adjust its trade structure and reduce reliance on exports, which requires addressing domestic overcapacity in various sectors [10][11][14]. 10. Future Negotiation Factors: Key factors in upcoming negotiations include negotiation skills, flexibility, and potential currency adjustments, such as the yuan's valuation [13][21]. Additional Important Content - Employment Concerns: The pressure on exports and employment is significant, with potential job losses affecting around 18 million people due to export declines [6][9]. - RCEP Opportunities: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) presents opportunities for zero-tariff goods, which could enhance global export potential [19]. - Government and Business Collaboration: There is a need for collaboration between the government and businesses to promote diversification and explore new markets [20][24]. - US Order Trends: There is a notable increase in US orders, with companies facing challenges in shipping logistics, which may lead to inflationary pressures in the US if tariffs remain high [25][26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of China-US trade relations, emphasizing the complexities and challenges faced by Chinese enterprises in the evolving trade landscape.