煤炭红利：不确定性中确定性

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is currently facing inventory pressure, but there are signs of marginal improvement. Power plant inventories are not at yearly highs, and demand for replenishment, reduced imports, and improved daily consumption are expected to stabilize and rebound coal prices from late May to the end of June, although the extent of the rebound is influenced by inventory levels [1][4][27]. Key Points and Arguments - Investment Logic Shift: The investment logic in the coal industry has shifted from cyclical to valuation-driven. The new public offering regulations have increased the focus on dividend assets, leading to stronger capital inflows. The coal sector's allocation ratio is lower than that of the CSI 300, indicating potential for long-term valuation increases in a declining government bond yield environment [1][4][10][28]. - Supply-Side Reform Impact: Supply-side reforms have significantly affected the coal industry, stabilizing prices through production limits. However, production and capacity increases are constrained, enhancing price stability. Long-term inflation and rising costs are expected to drive resource prices higher, shifting investment strategies from performance growth to valuation growth [1][8][9]. - Capital Expenditure Trends: The proportion of capital expenditure for new capacity has decreased, with stricter safety and environmental requirements limiting new supply elasticity. The long-term contract pricing mechanism (base price of 675 RMB/ton) ensures stable profitability [1][9][20]. - Coal Price Trends: Coal prices have been on a downward trend this year, with the Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal coal price dropping to around 617 RMB. Factors influencing this trend include a slowdown in electricity demand growth, the impact of wind and solar energy alternatives, and changes in tariff policies. However, as summer temperatures normalize, total electricity demand is expected to improve, potentially boosting thermal power demand [2][3][13][14]. - Future Demand and Supply Dynamics: The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain resilient due to increased coal consumption in the chemical industry and improved coal consumption per unit of electricity. The supply is relatively stable, suggesting that prices may fluctuate around a central point in the medium to long term [3][19]. Additional Important Insights - High Dividend Assets: In the context of declining government bond yields, high dividend assets are likely to receive valuation premiums. For instance, China Shenhua's dividend payout ratio is expected to increase significantly, enhancing its attractiveness as a defensive investment [10][12]. - Market Preferences: The market's preference has shifted towards technology growth sectors, which has affected the performance of the coal sector within the dividend investment logic. The coal sector's performance has been relatively weak compared to other sectors [13][18]. - Stock Recommendations: Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal for elastic growth, China Shenhua for high dividends, and State Power Investment Corporation for transformation growth. These companies are expected to maintain strong dividend yields and growth potential [23][30][31]. - Future Price Predictions: Coal prices are expected to stabilize or rebound from late May to the end of June, with potential fluctuations in July depending on demand conditions. The upcoming peak purchasing season in September and October may also positively impact prices [7][18][27]. - Focus on Defensive Investments: Given the current economic uncertainties, high dividend stocks, particularly leading companies in the coal sector, are expected to continue attracting investor interest and maintain high valuation levels [10][12].