EM & APAC股票策略：美国例外主义与新兴市场资金流向

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Emerging Markets (EM) and Asia-Pacific (APAC) equity strategy, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations and currency fluctuations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. US-China Tariff Dynamics - The US-China tariff agreement indicates a reduction in peak tariff pain, with the weighted average tariff rate on US imports expected to decrease from 24% to 15% post-agreement, compared to 2.4% in 2024. This tariff shock is anticipated to negatively impact global trade and the economy [2][2][2]. 2. Market Performance and Valuation - MSCI EM has increased by 4.4% since April 1, while the 2025 consensus EPS has declined by 1.4%, suggesting that markets have reacted mildly to the tariff news. The EM price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 18.2x, which is considered not cheap, with 2025-26 EPS growth forecasts of 15-17% facing downside risks [2][2][12]. 3. Potential Capital Flows from the US to EM - A hypothetical outflow of $1 trillion from the US into EM equities could result in $290 billion inflows for EMs. The absorption of this capital would take approximately 2.2 days in EM markets compared to 8.9 days in developed markets (DMs) [3][31][32]. 4. Impact of USD Weakness on EM Equities - A weaker USD generally has a negative impact on EM earnings per share (EPS), estimated at a 0.2-0.25% decline for every 1% depreciation. However, it tends to improve EM returns by about 3% for the same depreciation due to increased foreign equity inflows [4][4][38]. 5. Regional Sensitivity to Currency Movements - Taiwan, China, and India are expected to benefit the most from a weaker USD, while Japan is projected to benefit the least. Taiwan's foreign flows are particularly sensitive to currency fluctuations, often leading to market outperformance despite potential EPS hits [5][54][54]. 6. Sector Sensitivity to USD Movements - Real estate and transport sectors are likely to benefit the most from a weaker USD, while sectors like insurance, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals may experience a more significant negative impact [42][42][42]. Additional Important Insights 1. Market Ratings - The report includes a market rating distribution for EM/AxJ, with China and Indonesia rated overweight, while Taiwan and Saudi Arabia are rated underweight [7][7][7]. 2. EPS Revisions - Recent revisions indicate a downward trend in EPS for 2025 across various markets, with significant impacts noted in Japan, the USA, and Hong Kong [19][20][21]. 3. Foreign Flows and Currency Performance - The sensitivity of foreign flows to currency movements varies significantly across countries, with Taiwan showing the highest sensitivity and Japan the lowest [54][54][54]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a rotation out of 'defensive and domestic' themes in favor of markets like Korea, Mexico, and Hong Kong, while India's attractiveness may diminish [2][2][2]. 5. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for EM remains cautious, with potential risks from global economic conditions and tariff policies impacting growth forecasts [2][2][2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the EM and APAC equity markets.