鸿海精密：2025 年第一季度业绩 —— 对强劲的 2025 年展望略作调整

Summary of Hon Hai Precision's Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Hon Hai Precision (also known as Foxconn) - Industry: Electric Components & Equipment - Market Cap: NT$2,259 billion (approximately US$74.5 billion) [6] Key Financial Results - 1Q25 Sales: NT$1.64 trillion, down 23% QoQ, aligning with market expectations [1] - Segment Performance: - Smart Consumer Electronics: -40% QoQ (40% of sales) - Computing Products: -16% QoQ (19% of sales) - Components: -3% QoQ (7% of sales) - Cloud/Networking: Stable at 34% of sales - Servers: +50% YoY [1][12] - Gross Margin (GM): 6.1%, Operating Margin (OpM): 2.8% [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): NT$3.03, exceeding market expectations [1] Future Guidance - 2Q25 Guidance: Expected growth of 4-15% QoQ, with the strongest growth anticipated from cloud/networking [2] - Full Year 2025 Sales Growth: Estimated at +13% YoY, revised down from >15% due to FX and tariff impacts [3][21] - AI Server Sales: Expected to reach 50% of total server sales by 2Q25, with a potential for 20% of total sales in 2025 [11] Market Dynamics - Tariff and FX Impact: NT$ appreciation has reduced translated sales growth from "strong" to "significant" [3][21] - Supply Constraints: Ongoing supply issues are affecting AI server rack production, impacting sales visibility [3][2] Investment Outlook - Rating: Maintain BUY rating, target price reduced from NT$270 to NT$230 due to tariff and FX headwinds [4][11] - EPS Projections: Revised down for 2025-26 from NT$15/NT$18 to NT$13/NT$16 [4][27] - AI Server Market Share: Hon Hai holds approximately 40% market share in GB200 NVL72 full-rack solutions, with potential for growth in future AI server generations [10] Financial Metrics - Revenue Projections: - 2025E: NT$7.72 trillion - 2026E: NT$9.54 trillion [5][22] - Profitability Metrics: - EBIT Margin: Expected to remain stable around 2.9% [5] - Dividend Yield: Projected at 3.5% for 2025 [23] Additional Insights - Inventory Levels: Increased by 25% QoQ to NT$1.05 trillion, with inventory days rising from 38 to 62 [1][23] - Capex Plans: Expected to increase over 20% YoY in 2025, focusing on expansion in the US, India, and Vietnam [23] - AI Contribution: AI is projected to rise from 0% contribution in 2022 to 60% of segment sales in 2025 [15] Conclusion - Overall Outlook: Despite challenges from tariffs and currency fluctuations, Hon Hai is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI servers, with a strong market presence and strategic partnerships. The company is expected to maintain a solid financial performance with a focus on expanding its cloud and networking business.