阿里巴巴：2025 财年第四季度业绩速览 —— 业绩略逊预期，但核心运营利润超预期

Summary of Alibaba Group's 4QFY25 Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: Alibaba Group - Industry: Internet Services - Market Cap: US$311 billion as of 14 May 2025 - 12-Month Rating: Buy with a price target of US$180.00 Key Financial Results - Total Revenue: Rmb236 billion, up 7% YoY, slightly missed expectations by 1-2% [2][9] - Adjusted EBITA: Rmb32.6 billion, up 36% YoY, also missed expectations by 1-2% [2][9] - Segment Performance: - Taobao Tmall Group (TTG): Revenue +9% YoY, EBITA +8% YoY, beat expectations [3] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC): Revenue +22% YoY, EBITA loss narrowed to Rmb3.5 billion [3] - Cloud: Revenue +18% YoY, EBITA margin decreased to 8% due to AI investments [3] - Cainiao: Revenue -12% YoY, missed expectations due to lower domestic logistics revenue [3] Noteworthy Areas - TTG Outlook: Management emphasized the importance of GMV and CMR growth sustainability amid macro uncertainties. The introduction of a 0.6% software service fee since September 2024 is expected to support future growth [4] - Cloud Outlook: Anticipated revenue growth of +22% for FY26E, with a focus on capital expenditure which was lower than expected at Rmb25 billion for the March quarter [4] - Dividend: FY25 DPS set at US$1.9/ADS, representing a 20% payout ratio, higher than FY24's 18% [4] Market Reaction - Expected slightly negative price reactions due to the overall slight miss in headline numbers, as market expectations were high leading into earnings [8] Financial Metrics and Forecasts - Revenue Forecasts: Expected revenues for FY26E at Rmb1,002.998 billion, with continued growth projected [7] - EPS Forecasts: Projected EPS for FY25E at Rmb66.50, increasing to Rmb85.41 by FY27E [7] - Valuation Metrics: P/E ratio projected to be 14.5x for FY25E, with a dividend yield of 1.3% [7] Risks and Challenges - Key risks identified include regulatory changes, macroeconomic headwinds, competitive pressures, and execution complexities due to multiple platforms [12] Conclusion - Alibaba Group's 4QFY25 results reflect a mixed performance with strong growth in certain segments but challenges in others. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with management focusing on balancing investment and profitability in a competitive landscape.