特朗普重推“最惠国”药价政策，对医药市场短期影响可控

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the implications of the Trump administration's proposed "Most Favored Nation" (MFN) drug pricing policy on the global pharmaceutical market and U.S. healthcare spending [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Most Favored Nation Policy: The Trump administration has reintroduced the MFN policy aimed at reducing high drug prices in Medicare Part B by referencing prices from other high-income OECD countries. However, the specifics of the policy remain unclear, and its implementation is uncertain [2][10][12]. - U.S. Healthcare Spending: In 2023, U.S. healthcare spending reached $4.87 trillion, accounting for 17.6% of GDP. Prescription drug spending constituted approximately $449.7 billion, or 9.2% of total healthcare expenditures [3][4]. - Drug Price Disparities: U.S. brand-name prescription drug prices are, on average, 422% higher than those in other developed countries. Even after accounting for rebates, U.S. drug prices remain 308% higher [5]. - Complex Pricing System: The U.S. drug pricing system involves multiple stakeholders, including manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, and insurers, leading to a complex negotiation process that affects final consumer prices [6][9]. - WAC vs. ASP: The Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC) and Average Sales Price (ASP) typically differ by 20%-30%. WAC tends to increase over time, but ASP may not rise correspondingly due to rebates, resulting in final prices being 40%-50% higher than WAC [7]. - AbbVie Pricing Strategy: AbbVie employs a high WAC and rebate strategy, maintaining a strong market share even after patent expiration by providing significant discounts to Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) [8]. - Role of Intermediaries: Intermediaries like PBMs and insurers dominate the pricing and distribution process, with non-manufacturer income share increasing from 33.2% in 2013 to 50.5% in 2020, surpassing manufacturer income [9]. Additional Important Insights - Impact on Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies: The MFN policy may lead to increased demand for innovative drug development in China as multinational companies may reduce R&D budgets and focus on cost control. Chinese companies are encouraged to develop competitive, differentiated product pipelines [3][15]. - Long-term Strategic Shifts: If the MFN policy is implemented, it could lead to a shift in global innovation strategies for pharmaceutical companies, with a potential decrease in investment in high-risk, long-term R&D projects aimed at the U.S. market [16]. - Challenges of Implementation: The MFN policy faces challenges due to the lack of clear implementation guidelines and the need for bipartisan support for legislative changes, which may limit its short-term impact [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the implications of the proposed drug pricing policy on the pharmaceutical industry and the broader healthcare landscape.