关税缓和+日耗回升，煤价筑底了吗？

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The coal industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn in prices, particularly at the Qinhuangdao port, where prices dropped from 640 RMB to 623 RMB, a decline of over 2.5% in a week [2] - The overall production in April showed a slight decrease, particularly in regions with a high proportion of private enterprises, such as Ordos and Yulin [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - Price Dynamics: The rapid decline in port coal prices is primarily driven by increased trading activity rather than production improvements. The increase in import coal prices remains significantly higher than domestic prices, indicating a resilient overseas market [1][5][12] - Inventory Levels: Qinhuangdao port's inventory rose slightly to 760,000 tons, while total northern inventory decreased to 3,250,000 tons. Power plant inventories remained stable, reflecting a high overall inventory level at major ports [6] - Stock Performance: Despite falling coal prices, coal stocks such as Shenhua and Yancoal saw price increases of nearly 5% and 2%, respectively. The low allocation of coal in public fund equity holdings suggests a potential for upward movement in stock prices [7][8] - Production Trends: Domestic coal production is expected to remain low in Q2, with state-owned enterprises reducing output and private companies cutting back due to low prices. The average daily production in Ordos for the first five months is below 2023 levels [9][10] - Demand Recovery: There is a marginal improvement in demand as electricity consumption begins to rise, with total electricity usage gradually increasing despite a decline in hydropower generation [13] Additional Important Insights - Import Coal Trends: April saw a month-on-month decline in import coal volume, with an expected total import of 450 million tons for the year, down from 540 million tons in 2022. This reduction may offset domestic production increases, leading to a negative growth scenario in supply [11][12] - Market Sentiment: The recent price drop is attributed more to trading factors rather than a significant imbalance in supply and demand. Market confidence is expected to gradually recover in the coming months [9] - Investment Opportunities: The coal sector is currently underweighted in institutional portfolios, presenting a potential opportunity for short-term trading. Recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Jinko Coal, which are seen as having good investment value in the current market environment [17] Future Price Expectations - The price level of 620-630 RMB/ton is considered a bottom, with a potential for upward movement as demand increases during the peak season. If prices rise by 100 RMB, the overall average price for the year may need to be adjusted [15][16]