新消费重估值？核心推荐观点

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Gold and Jewelry Industry - The gold and jewelry industry is undergoing a significant transformation from channel-driven to product-driven, influenced by increased information transparency and consumer sophistication. Brands are innovating in design and craftsmanship to cope with rising gold prices. Valuation varies, with weight-based products valued lower and fixed-price products valued higher, potentially leading to a reevaluation in the context of new consumer sentiment [1][4][7]. - In April 2025, the industry showed decent performance in retail sales data, primarily due to a low base and investment gold's strong influence. However, the beta for jewelry is not ideal, with companies like Changhong Jiahua and Mankalon showing resilience against budget and price pressures [3][4]. - The valuation of the gold and jewelry sector is at historical lows, with weight-based products valued below 15 times earnings and fixed-price products valued around 20 to 30 times. This sector is expected to gain more attention as new consumer sentiment rises [7]. Tea Beverage Industry - The tea beverage industry is shifting from price competition to product innovation, with new products contributing more to revenue and improving average transaction value and gross margins. Leading brands have high market concentration, limiting the survival space for new entrants. Notable performers include Cha Bai Dao and Gu Ming, which excel in product innovation and geographic expansion [1][11][12]. - In Q1 2025, Cha Bai Dao's new product contribution to revenue increased from 10% to 18%, indicating a positive trend in product innovation and pricing strategy [11][13]. - The market share of leading tea brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Gu Ming, and others accounts for approximately 50% of the market, indicating high concentration and competitive dynamics [9][10]. Beauty Industry - The beauty industry is transitioning from channel-driven growth to a focus on comprehensive capabilities. International brands are recovering, and domestic brands are no longer engaging in aggressive price wars. Key areas of interest include collagen restructuring and functional skincare products, with Hong Kong-listed beauty brands valued between 25 to 35 times earnings and expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 30% over the next three years [1][19][20]. - Companies like Shangmei and Mao Ge Ping are adjusting their product lines and expanding into new categories, such as fragrances and body care, to meet urban women's needs [23][24]. Key Companies and Their Strategies Shangmei Co. - Shangmei is leveraging data from Douyin and expanding its product line to seek growth. The brand is transitioning towards a broader market appeal and plans to launch collaborative products with popular IPs [23]. Mao Ge Ping - Mao Ge Ping is restructuring its skincare business and has launched a new fragrance line. The company aims to meet the demands of urban women and is expected to achieve around 30% growth over the next few years [24]. Ke Fu Mei - Ke Fu Mei holds a strong position in the collagen cosmetics sector, with expectations of maintaining approximately 30% growth over the next three years. The company is preparing for medical aesthetics commercialization [25]. Bu Lu Ke - Bu Lu Ke is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expectations of reaching 11 to 12 billion yuan in 2025. The company is diversifying its IP portfolio and expanding its market presence [35]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The overall consumer market is expected to recover, with the beauty sector showing signs of growth despite previous pessimism. The beauty industry is transitioning from a focus on price to product quality and brand-driven growth, with many companies expected to maintain a compound growth rate of around 30% [21][29]. - The medical aesthetics industry is also transitioning from a saturated market to one with growth potential, particularly with upcoming shopping events and new product launches expected to drive performance [32]. Conclusion - The gold and jewelry, tea beverage, and beauty industries are all experiencing significant transformations driven by consumer behavior changes and market dynamics. Companies that adapt to these changes through innovation and strategic positioning are likely to see substantial growth opportunities in the coming years.