关税调降后，股债怎么配？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the fixed income and equity markets, with a focus on investment strategies for 2025, including sectors like banking, AI, robotics, and new consumption. Core Points and Arguments 1. Fixed Income + Strategy Performance: The fixed income + strategy has shown better performance compared to pure bond funds in the first half of 2025, with overall returns exceeding the median of pure bond funds [2][1] 2. Economic Conditions: The current economic momentum is insufficient, leading to a preference for longer duration bonds and a buy-on-dip strategy. Equity markets are expected to experience wide fluctuations and structural trends [1][4] 3. Sector Rotation: 2025 has seen accelerated sector rotation, with significant rebounds in small-cap stocks and new consumption since April. Robotics and deep learning have led the growth trend earlier in the year [1][6] 4. Banking Sector Stability: The banking sector remains attractive due to improved asset quality from national debt management, with dividend yields still appealing compared to deposits. Insurance funds favor dividend stocks, supporting bank stock performance [1][7] 5. Extreme Asset Allocation: There is a noticeable trend towards extreme asset allocation in 2025, with a focus on dividend stocks like banks and growth assets in AI and robotics. New consumption sectors are also gaining traction [1][8] 6. Quantitative Models: Quantitative models are crucial for controlling drawdowns and optimizing investment strategies, allowing for effective management of equity and bond positions [4][5] 7. Market Dynamics: The bond market is less risky, and the pricing efficiency of bonds is faster than that of stocks, leading to a reduced stock-bond seesaw effect [12][11] 8. Investor Behavior: Changes in investor structure, such as the entry of insurance and social security funds, can elevate stock market valuations, indicating a potential bullish trend for 2025 [17][18] 9. Future Predictions: The outlook for the Chinese economy and financial markets remains stable, with no significant risks anticipated in the near term. The focus will be on maintaining high positions in bonds and rotating sectors in equities [29][28] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Absolute Return Philosophy: The absolute return philosophy emphasizes stable and continuous growth in net asset value, aiming for a Sharpe ratio of at least 1.5 to 2, with maximum drawdown being about twice the annual return [3][10] 2. Challenges in Hedging: Domestic public funds face challenges in using government bond futures for hedging due to regulatory constraints and market capacity issues [21][22] 3. Sector Opportunities: Current investment opportunities include the banking sector, small-cap stocks, AI applications, and new consumption trends like pet economy and trendy toys, with potential rebounds in these areas [23][24] 4. Impact of US-China Tariff Discussions: Positive developments in US-China tariff discussions could enhance the performance of stable cash flow stocks, particularly in the banking sector [25][26] 5. Monetary Policy Effects: The Chinese central bank's recent policies, including rate cuts, are expected to support the bond market, while the US Federal Reserve's actions will significantly influence market dynamics [27][28]