基数因素or另有原因——如何看待4月财政收支改善

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fiscal situation in China for April 2025, focusing on government spending, revenue, and infrastructure investment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - Fiscal Spending Growth: In April 2025, fiscal spending growth accelerated, primarily due to government debt financing support. The issuance of central ordinary and special government bonds has increased, with local governments shifting focus towards project investments, especially in infrastructure [3][5][8]. - Local Government Investment: Local governments have actively engaged in infrastructure investments through special bonds, with significant increases in government fund budget expenditures corresponding to local infrastructure investments. Social welfare-related expenditures have also risen, indicating increased pressure to maintain employment [5][6]. - Revenue Improvement: There was a marginal improvement in fiscal revenue in April 2025, although it remained in negative growth territory overall. Corporate income tax and export-related taxes provided some support, with corporate income tax improvements likely linked to corporate profit growth [6][9]. - Structural Changes in Public Finance: Public finance expenditures have shown structural changes, with a slight recovery in transportation spending and a decline in agricultural and forestry-related expenditures. This indicates a more proactive approach by local governments towards infrastructure investments [7][8]. - Land Sale Revenue: Land sale revenue growth remained negative in the first quarter of 2025, but micro-level data showed a recovery in land transaction prices across 330 cities. Fiscal confirmation of revenue lagged behind, only showing improvement in April [10]. - Future Policy Outlook: The future policy outlook suggests a preference for utilizing existing policies before considering any new measures. The second quarter will see continued acceleration in the implementation of existing policies, with potential new policies dependent on external pressures and upcoming political meetings [4][11][12]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - Export Tax Revenue: The first quarter of 2025 saw historically low export-related tax revenues, primarily due to high export tax rebates. This situation is linked to the "rush to export" phenomenon [9]. - Monitoring Future Developments: The upcoming political meetings in July and August will be critical in determining whether additional fiscal measures will be introduced, especially if export growth approaches zero [13].