煤炭｜守得明月见日开，行业拐点逐步明晰

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is expected to see a price bottom by the end of May, with the CCI price stabilizing and the Bohai Rim Index likely to stop declining, indicating a market bottom [1][3][14] - The overall coal supply and demand dynamics are shifting, with a potential turning point in the coal fundamentals [2][14] Key Points on Supply and Demand - In April, coal production in Xinjiang decreased by nearly one-third, and Hami enterprises have lowered their annual production targets from 85 million tons to 70-75 million tons [1][6] - Inner Mongolia's coal production also saw a significant decline, with April output dropping to approximately 98 million tons from 120 million tons in March [1][6] - Domestic coal imports fell for the first time from March to April 2023, with an expected annual decrease of 70 million tons [1][9] - Non-electric coal demand remains strong, with steel and chemical industries showing robust performance, contributing positively to overall daily consumption [1][11] Price Dynamics - The coal price has dropped to around 640 RMB/ton, with losses occurring when prices fall to approximately 620 RMB/ton, which is seen as a support level [1][8] - The average coal price in April was between 650 to 660 RMB, with a nationwide production decrease of about 5% [7] - The anticipated summer demand is expected to be normal, with daily consumption potentially reaching 2.3 million tons, and in extreme cases, up to 2.5 million tons [1][10] Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to power plant restocking needs, with a price rebound anticipated by the end of May [2][14] - The second half of the year is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with prices likely not dropping as low as current levels [15] - Recommended companies for investment include Shaanxi Coal and others, which are expected to show resilience during the price rebound [16] Additional Insights - The impact of the U.S.-China trade conflict on the manufacturing sector has been noted, with a potential increase in electricity demand due to production ramp-ups during the trade truce [12][13] - The overall coal market is at a critical juncture, with risks on the demand side outweighing those on the supply side, indicating a potential recovery phase [2][14]