德意志：美国经济笔记：未来一周需了解的要点

Summary of Deutsche Bank Economic Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US Economic Outlook and the impact of trade tensions on economic indicators such as consumer spending and inflation [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Consumer Spending and Inflation: - Personal income increased by 0.4% compared to an expected 0.5% increase, while consumption rose by 0.2% against a forecast of 0.7% [1]. - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to show a softer print of 0.12%, influenced by volatile categories like airfares and portfolio management, leading to a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.6% [1]. 2. Durable Goods Orders: - A significant decline in durable goods orders of 8.1% was noted, primarily due to a drop in Boeing aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders fell by 0.2% [2]. - Companies are pausing capital expenditure plans amid tariff uncertainties, which is reflected in the soft core orders [2]. 3. Trade Balance and Tariffs: - The advance goods trade balance showed a deficit of $155 billion, slightly better than the previous $162 billion [2]. - The report suggests that tariffs may narrow the trade deficit, as foreign retaliation could be muted, and the Trump tariffs have led to dollar depreciation [5]. 4. Consumer Confidence: - Consumer confidence is expected to remain low, with a forecast of 85.0, close to pandemic lows. Attention will be on consumer views regarding the labor market [6]. 5. Federal Reserve Policy: - The Federal Reserve is not expected to make significant policy changes in the near term, with a consensus among officials that current policy is appropriate [7]. - The minutes from the May FOMC meeting are anticipated to reflect a broader consensus on the Fed's wait-and-see approach amidst trade uncertainties [7]. 6. Market Volatility: - The report indicates that ongoing trade negotiations and tariff escalations are likely to increase volatility in risk assets and corporate capital commitments [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the potential long-term economic costs of tariffs, including increased prices and reduced output, which may persist for years [5]. - There is a noted increase in longer-term inflation expectations despite a recent cooling in energy prices, indicating underlying inflationary pressures [6]. - The upcoming data releases are expected to shift focus back to trade, with significant implications for market sentiment and economic forecasts [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Deutsche Bank Economic Notes, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, consumer behavior, and macroeconomic indicators.