固收：“资产荒”会再现吗

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the bond market and the potential for an "asset shortage" in 2025, with a focus on government and non-government financing dynamics [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Government Bond Issuance: - In the first five months of 2025, government bond issuance accelerated, with general government bonds reaching 1.9 trillion, accounting for approximately 40% of the annual plan, compared to 30% in the same period of 2024 [3][4]. - Local government bonds totaled 3.7 trillion, exceeding half of the annual quota, indicating a significant increase from previous years [3][4]. 2. Non-Government Financing Trends: - Non-government financing has been contracting, with a notable decrease in credit growth in the first quarter of 2025, adding only 280 billion, a significant drop year-on-year [5]. - The demand for non-government financing is influenced by actual profit levels, with rising costs and declining prices leading to reduced borrowing needs [5][6]. 3. Impact of Price Declines: - The downward pressure on prices has led to an increase in real interest rates, further suppressing the demand for non-government debt [6][10]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing significant declines, which are expected to continue, impacting overall market liquidity [5][6]. 4. Role of Household Savings: - Household savings are flowing into broad fixed-income assets, providing stable support for the bond market, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2% in March 2025 [7]. - This inflow is crucial as it offsets the potential decline in government bond supply and supports the overall demand for fixed-income assets [7][10]. 5. Central Bank's Monetary Policy: - The central bank is primarily supporting government bond issuance but shows limited willingness to actively inject funds [8][9]. - A significant increase in fiscal deposits suggests that funds will be gradually allocated, potentially leading to a passive easing scenario similar to Q3 2022 [9]. 6. Potential for Asset Shortage: - The combination of slowing asset supply and stable or increasing demand could lead to a re-emergence or intensification of asset shortages in the bond market [10]. - The market is transitioning from discussions of "liability shortages" to concerns about "asset shortages," driven by the dynamics of government bond issuance and non-government financing [10]. Additional Important Insights - Investment Strategy Recommendations: - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of leveraging short-term positions and extending duration on long-term bonds, particularly starting in mid-June 2025, to capitalize on potential opportunities in Q3 [11]. - The expectation is that the yield on 10-year government bonds may drop to a low of 1.4% to 1.5% within the year [11].