如何看待后续猪价和产能趋势？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the pig farming industry and the pork market dynamics in China, focusing on supply, demand, and pricing trends. Key Points and Arguments Short-term Price Trends - Short-term support for pig prices is expected from fattening or secondary fattening, but supply release will lead to prices hitting a new low again. Post-Duanwu Festival, a supply-demand mismatch may cause price declines in July and August [1][3] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, with supply-demand ratios needing to find new equilibrium points, potentially around June 4 or June 5 [3] Medium-term Outlook - Medium-term expectations indicate that weight reduction and decreased fattening stock will alleviate supply-demand pressure, coupled with the upcoming consumption peak, leading to a potential price increase [1][3] - The number of breeding sows is showing a downward trend, with an increase in the number of sows being culled, reflecting market pessimism regarding pig prices for the second half of the year and next year [1][5] Long-term Projections - Long-term projections suggest a marginal decrease in production capacity by 2026 due to policy factors and insufficient future expectations from large-scale farms [1][10] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations of reduced production capacity driven by government measures to cut capacity [10] Slaughtering Trends - In 2025, slaughtering volumes exceeded expectations, with leading slaughterhouses seeing over a 30% year-on-year increase, attributed to improved product capabilities and concentrated farming structures [2][7] - The decline in slaughtering volumes from small-scale butchers and regional meat processing plants indicates a clear trend towards slaughtering centralization [2][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - The proportion of social pig sources received by slaughterhouses is low due to large output from farming companies and a cautious stance from farmers regarding future price expectations [3][4] - The current supply pressure remains significant, with the average weight of pigs being adjusted downwards, but the overall supply structure still shows high levels of stock [8][9] Factors Influencing Pork Prices - Key factors affecting medium to long-term pork price predictions include the transfer of stock structure, seasonal demand, and policy influences [6][10] - The second quarter's piglet numbers are insufficient to meet the supply demands for December and January, necessitating adjustments in stock and weight to compensate for seasonal demand [6][10] Market Behavior - The behavior of various market participants, including large farming companies and individual farmers, is influencing overall market trends, with large companies dominating sales channels while individual farmers reduce their output [4][5] Additional Important Insights - The current high culling rate of sows, approximately 5% in June, reflects market expectations and production cost management [10] - The overall market is characterized by a high stock rate and low turnover, limiting the space for replenishing piglets, which is a significant factor in the ongoing decline of piglet prices [10]