国际清算银行：稳定币与安全资产价格

Summary of Key Points from the Document on Stablecoins and Safe Asset Prices Industry Overview - The document focuses on the impact of dollar-backed stablecoins on short-term US Treasury yields, highlighting their growing significance in financial markets as of March 2025, with combined assets exceeding $200 billion [9][10][22]. Core Findings 1. Impact on Treasury Yields: A 2-standard deviation inflow into stablecoins lowers 3-month Treasury yields by approximately 2-2.5 basis points within 10 days, with no significant spillover effects on longer tenors [6][19]. 2. Asymmetric Effects: Stablecoin outflows have a more pronounced effect on yields, raising them by 6-8 basis points compared to the 2-3 basis points decrease from inflows [20][63]. 3. Issuer Contributions: USDT (Tether) accounts for about 70% of the yield impact from stablecoin flows, while USDC (Circle) contributes around 19% [20][64]. Financial Market Dynamics - Stablecoins have purchased nearly $40 billion of US Treasury bills in 2024, positioning them as significant players in short-term debt markets, comparable to major money market funds [9][10]. - The growth of stablecoins may affect the pass-through of monetary policy to Treasury yields and contribute to safe asset scarcity for non-bank financial institutions [20][21]. Methodology Insights - The analysis utilizes daily data from January 2021 to March 2025, employing local projection regressions to estimate the effects of stablecoin flows on Treasury yields while addressing endogeneity concerns [11][42]. - An instrumental variable strategy is used to isolate the impact of stablecoin flows from other market influences, specifically using cumulative crypto shocks as an instrument [18][55]. Implications for Policy and Regulation - The findings suggest that the rapid growth of the stablecoin sector could influence monetary policy transmission and highlight the need for transparent reserve disclosures to monitor concentrated stablecoin reserve portfolios effectively [20][21]. - Potential financial stability risks arise from stablecoins becoming large investors in Treasury markets, exposing the market to fire sales during periods of stress [21][22]. Additional Observations - The stablecoin market is highly concentrated, with USDT and USDC representing over 95% of the total market capitalization [29]. - The document emphasizes the importance of understanding the interaction between stablecoins and traditional safe asset markets, which has been underexplored in prior research [9][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and findings from the document regarding the role of stablecoins in influencing Treasury yields and their broader implications for financial markets and policy.