创新药迎来政策、产业和业绩三因素共振 - 再论创新药估值体系

Summary of Conference Call on Innovative Pharmaceuticals Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the innovative pharmaceutical industry, particularly in China, discussing the valuation system and market dynamics of innovative drugs [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - Revaluation of PS Valuation: The traditional price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 3-4 times is deemed insufficient to reflect the current macroeconomic changes. A new model should consider factors such as improved net profit margins, accelerated peak sales, extended plateau periods, and positive perpetual growth rates [1]. - Significant Increase in Net Profit Margins: Companies like Elysium have reported net profit margins exceeding 40%, with specific drugs like Furmetin achieving over 50%. This represents an increase of more than 10% compared to a decade ago, driven by economies of scale, clinical value orientation, and a mature domestic payment system [1][4]. - Accelerated Market Penetration of Innovative Drugs: The time for oncology drugs to enter the medical insurance system has significantly decreased, from an average of 7.9 years in 2017 to just over one year in 2024. This rapid entry into hospitals enhances market penetration [1][5]. - Extended Peak Plateau Period: Regulatory controls on supply have allowed high-quality products to consolidate market share, extending the peak plateau period to an estimated 4-5 years [1][5]. - Favorable Medical Insurance Policies: The medical insurance system is favoring innovative drugs over generics, with a potential perpetual growth rate of 1%-2% due to the clearing of generic drug production capacity [1][5]. - Rapid Growth of Chinese Innovative Drugs Overseas: The number and value of Chinese innovative drugs entering international markets have surged, with Q1 exports accounting for 50% of the global total. Increased recognition in overseas academia enhances the likelihood of successful international expansion [1][6]. Additional Important Insights - Improved Profitability of Innovative Drug Companies: High-quality innovative pharmaceutical companies such as BeiGene, Hutchison China MediTech, and Innovent Biologics are entering a profitability phase, improving cash flow and attracting foreign investors, leading to a positive market outlook and a revaluation of the industry [2][11]. - Changes in Valuation Calculation: The valuation of innovative drugs typically involves calculating peak sales multiplied by the PS ratio and success probability. The current macro environment necessitates a re-evaluation of this approach, with the PS ratio potentially increasing to 4.5-5 times [3][5]. - Marginal Impact of Domestic and International Macro Environment: The pressure on medical insurance reserves in China is not significantly greater than in previous years, and there is a potential rebound in insurance payments. The geopolitical situation has minimal impact on the innovative pharmaceutical sector [6][7]. - Commercialization Strategies for Chinese Companies: Most Chinese companies utilize a "borrowing ship" model, selling patent rights to U.S. firms for clinical or commercial advancement, which avoids customs and tariffs [8]. - Production Decisions Post-Commercialization: Once a drug is commercialized, U.S. companies typically prefer to produce in the U.S. If they opt for Chinese companies to handle production, the customs declaration can be done at cost price, minimally affecting overall valuation [9]. - Impact of U.S. Drug Price Controls: U.S. government measures aimed at lowering drug prices may not significantly affect ex-factory prices due to high overseas deductions, while Chinese drugs remain competitively priced [10].