PETROCHINA(SH:601857)2025-06-02 15:44Summary of China Oil Data Digest - April 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry in China, summarizing supply, apparent demand, and trade data for April 2025. Key Points Apparent Demand and Supply - Chinese apparent oil demand decreased by 410 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) year-on-year (YoY) in April, primarily due to refinery maintenance impacting product supply and leading to a rapid build-up of crude stocks [2][5][11] - Apparent diesel demand fell by 110 kb/d month-on-month (MoM) and was down 9% YoY, aligning with weakening manufacturing PMIs [11][18] - Apparent gasoline demand dropped 13% YoY to 3.16 million barrels per day (mb/d), with a 150 kb/d decrease from March [21][27] - Jet fuel demand weakened sharply, falling by 145 kb/d MoM and 19% YoY, although total flight numbers increased slightly [30][36] Crude Imports and Exports - Chinese crude imports softened in April but still reached a seasonal record of 11.7 mb/d, with a 370 kb/d MoM decrease but an increase of 830 kb/d YoY [3][7][58] - Imports of Iranian oil fell by 530 kb/d MoM due to increased caution among refiners following US sanctions [3][60] - Strong imports from Russia and Brazil were noted, as Chinese refiners opted for cheaper grades amid high premiums for Middle Eastern crude [3][61] Refinery Operations - Refinery throughput dropped sharply by 740 kb/d MoM due to intensified seasonal maintenance, particularly at Sinopec [4][65] - Independent refiners increased utilization rates to a 14-week high of 47.5% to capitalize on stronger domestic margins [4][132] - Overall, refinery runs were down 180 kb/d YoY, marking the second consecutive month of decline [126][130] Product Exports and Imports - Refined product net exports weakened in April, driven by tighter supply and weak export margins, leading refiners to retain more supply domestically [5][73] - LPG imports increased by 140 kb/d MoM, reaching an all-time high for April, as buyers stocked up amid rising US-China trade tensions [40][78] - Naphtha imports are expected to strengthen in May and June due to increased attractiveness as a feedstock following high tariffs on LPG [49][50] Economic and Trade Context - The manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.0 in April, indicating contraction and reflecting the impact of US-China trade tensions [8][11] - The overall outlook for Chinese trade remains gloomy, with export growth expected to decelerate to 0% for 2025 [13][12] - The Chinese government released a second batch of clean product export quotas for 2025, totaling 12.8 million tons, slightly down from the previous year [98][101] Inventory Changes - China's crude stocks built rapidly, adding approximately 36 million barrels in April, while observable product inventories drew by 7.1 million barrels [158][165] - Diesel stocks drew by 4.0 million barrels, and gasoline stocks drew by 3.1 million barrels, driven by healthy demand for public holiday travel [159][163] Future Outlook - The YoY reduction in diesel demand is expected to widen further as the negative effects of tariffs on domestic manufacturing continue [16] - Despite a high level of refinery outages in April, which supported margins, a weakening outlook for demand is anticipated in the second half of 2025 [115][125] Additional Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of geopolitical factors, such as US sanctions and trade tensions, on China's oil demand and supply dynamics [12][60][136] - The shift in crude sourcing from Middle Eastern suppliers to Russian and Brazilian grades indicates a strategic response to pricing pressures and sanctions [61][64] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the April 2025 oil data digest, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese oil industry.