中国半导体：因晶圆代工需求增强，上调 2025 年中国晶圆厂设备展望

Summary of China Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the China Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market, with a revision of the 2025 outlook due to stronger foundry demand [1][17] - The 2025 WFE demand projection for China has been revised up to USD 39 billion, reflecting a -13% YoY change, while the 2026 projection is set at USD 41 billion with a 5% YoY increase [1][26] Key Insights - Demand Sustainability: The sustainability of WFE demand in China remains a key topic of discussion, with recent data showing resilient import figures year-to-date [1][4] - Local Production Growth: Local AI chip production is gaining traction, driven by export controls limiting access to advanced overseas manufacturing, making local production essential [2] - Capacity Expansion: Despite global overcapacity concerns in mature logic, Chinese foundries are expected to continue expanding capacity, aiming for self-sufficiency [3][35] - Utilization Rates: Companies like Hua Hong are operating at 103% utilization with only a 9% gross margin, indicating a focus on filling new capacity rather than protecting margins [3] Financial Projections - 2024 WFE Demand: Projected at USD 45 billion, with a 23% YoY increase, supported by strong import data and local supplier growth [25][30] - 2025 and 2026 Projections: The demand is expected to decrease slightly in 2025 and 2026, with projections of USD 39 billion and USD 41 billion, respectively [26][32] Import Data - Year-to-date import data shows a -2% YoY decline, indicating stability rather than a slowdown in demand [4][42] - The largest import region is Guangdong, suggesting a ramp-up in advanced logic customers [4] Company Ratings - NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech are rated as Outperform due to their leadership in deposition and dry etch technologies, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution [5][8][9][10] - AMAT and LRCX are also rated as Outperform, with expectations of growth driven by market dynamics and service narratives [11] Market Dynamics - The share of Chinese foundries in global mature logic revenue is currently at 21%, with a target of 30% [3] - The domestic share of WFE is expected to reach 36% by 2026, driven by government incentives and local co-development efforts [22][28] Conclusion - The Chinese semiconductor industry is poised for continued growth, with a focus on self-sufficiency and local production capabilities. The demand for WFE is expected to remain strong despite global market fluctuations, supported by local foundries' expansion and government policies promoting domestic suppliers.