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石油需求与库存追踪:美国出行增加推动全球石油需求上升,液体库存微升
2025-06-02 15:44

Summary of J.P. Morgan Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically analyzing oil demand and inventory levels as of May 29, 2025. Key Points 1. Global Oil Demand Increase Global oil demand has improved, primarily driven by a rebound in US oil consumption due to strong Memorial Day travel activities. As of May 28, the monthly expansion in global oil demand is tracking at approximately 400 thousand barrels per day (kbd), although it remains 250 kbd below expectations [3][4][5]. 2. US Oil Consumption US oil consumption has been significantly lifted by robust gasoline demand, particularly during the Memorial Day weekend and the start of the summer driving season. Distillate demand in the US surged as port activity improved, with container arrivals rising from 75.7k to 102.8k containers last week [3][4]. 3. Chinese Trade Activity In the week ending May 25, port container throughput in China increased to 6.56 million tonnes, marking the second highest level for the year. Overall port cargo volumes surged to 271 million tonnes, indicating robust trade activity despite tariff uncertainties [3][4]. 4. Regional Challenges The early onset of the monsoon season in the Indian subcontinent poses challenges for travel demand. Last year, high temperatures followed by monsoon rains led to a significant reduction in India's oil demand growth during the June-July period, dropping from 240 kbd to 120 kbd [3][4]. 5. OECD Oil Inventories Visible OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 2 million barrels (mb) in the fourth week of May, attributed to a 4 mb increase in oil product inventories, offsetting a 2 mb drop in crude oil stocks. Month-to-date, OECD stocks have expanded by 30 mb [3][4]. 6. Global Liquid Inventories Total global liquid inventories edged up slightly, with crude oil stocks falling by 1 mb while oil product inventories increased by 2 mb. Month-to-date, global liquid inventories have risen by 63 mb, with crude oil stocks up by 67 mb [3][4]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of seasonal travel patterns in influencing oil demand, particularly in the US. - It also notes the impact of external factors such as weather patterns in India and trade uncertainties in China on regional oil consumption. - The increase in OECD inventories suggests a potential oversupply situation, which could affect future oil prices and market dynamics [3][4][5].