对关税裁决的外汇思考：为何美元在风险市场回调中仍应滞后？

Summary of J.P. Morgan's FX Thoughts on Tariff Ruling Industry Overview - The document discusses the implications of a recent ruling by the US Court of International Trade regarding tariffs, particularly those related to China and Fentanyl, within the context of US trade policy and foreign exchange (FX) markets [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Tariff Ruling Context: The ruling that undoes certain tariffs is seen as a significant development in US trade policy, but it is not viewed as the end of the tariff saga. The court's decision is characterized as a "pothole" rather than a complete derailment of the US strategy [2][3]. 2. Impact on the Dollar: The initial reaction in macro markets included a stronger dollar, but this was followed by a retracement. The view is that the bearish case for the dollar remains intact despite the ruling, as the dollar is expected to lag behind the recovery in US markets [1][3]. 3. Global Growth Outlook: The removal of ultra-high tariffs is expected to positively impact not just the US but also global markets, particularly in China and broader Asia. This could lead to growth upgrades in these regions, which had previously been negatively impacted by high tariff rates [4][5]. 4. US Terminal Rate and Dollar Dynamics: If the current administration is constrained on tariffs, the gains from a higher US terminal rate would be modest. The focus may shift to term premium narratives, which could offset the usual positive correlation between a hawkish Fed and dollar strength [5][6]. 5. Ongoing Trade Negotiations: Despite the ruling, US trade negotiations with other countries are expected to continue. The administration has alternative policies to maintain tariffs as part of the agenda, which will motivate ongoing negotiations [6][7]. 6. Long Position in Dollar: The document notes that the world remains long on the dollar, and changing FX/equity correlations suggest an increase in FX hedges. This is particularly relevant for countries with large FX reserves, which may prefer to avoid weakening their currencies against the dollar [3][7]. 7. Future Scenarios for the Dollar: The dollar is anticipated to remain on a weakening path, although the intensity of this trend may vary. A significant change in this outlook would require a resurgence of US exceptionalism, characterized by strong US growth relative to disappointing growth in Europe and China [8][9]. Additional Important Content - Tariff Specifics: The ruling does not eliminate all tariffs, as Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs remain in place. An appeal against the ruling is expected, which could potentially reinstate broad-based tariffs under IEEPA [9][10]. - Alternative Tariff Options: The administration has other trade statutes available for imposing tariffs, which could be utilized if necessary [9][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications of the recent tariff ruling as discussed in the J.P. Morgan report, highlighting the interconnectedness of US trade policy, global economic growth, and FX market dynamics.