中国房地产：闲置土地回购加速 -这重要吗？

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Industry Overview - The focus is on the China Property sector, particularly regarding the buyback of idle land by local governments. Key Points and Arguments 1. Idle Land Buyback Acceleration: Local governments are accelerating the buyback of idle land, with 171 cities announcing intentions to repurchase approximately 3,000 idle land parcels for a total of Rmb 350-400 billion as of mid-May 2025. This is distinct from inventory buyback as it only reduces potential inventories, not existing ones [1][3][5]. 2. Impact on State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): Over 80% of the buyback targets are expected to benefit SOEs, improving their liquidity and enhancing the quality of their land banks, which is positive for property sales [1][3][5]. 3. Policy Objectives: The Ministry of Natural Resources has outlined six key guidelines for local governments, aiming to reduce existing land scale, optimize land supply/demand dynamics, enhance liquidity for local governments and enterprises, and stabilize the housing market. The primary goal appears to be easing financial stress on Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) and local SOEs rather than merely destocking [3][5]. 4. Progress and Scale of Buyback: The buyback has accelerated significantly, with the amount rising from Rmb 4 billion in January to Rmb 173 billion in April 2025. Residential lands account for 64% of the buyback, with tier-3/4 cities making up 74% of the total [3][12][18]. 5. Discounts on Purchase Prices: Approximately 50% of idle land plots were repurchased at a discount of less than 20% compared to the original acquisition cost, while 30% were at a discount of less than 10% [3][5]. 6. Potential Inventory Reduction: The estimated buyback size of 131 million sqm gross floor area (GFA) could reduce potential inventories by about 2 months of primary sales volume. However, actual inventory levels remain high at 18-19 months in key cities [5][21]. 7. Funding Mechanism: The buyback is primarily funded through special Local Government Bonds (LGBs), with Rmb 55 billion announced so far, representing 10-15% of the total buyback target. More LGBs will be needed to fund the remaining purchases [5][19]. 8. Leading Provinces in Repurchase: The top three provinces leading the repurchase efforts are Guangdong (Rmb 65 billion), Henan (Rmb 41 billion), and Fujian (Rmb 35 billion) [5][18]. 9. Target Developers: The majority of land repurchase targets are local SOEs/LGFVs (70%), followed by central-government SOEs (13%) and private developers (17%) [5][14]. 10. Developer Insights: SOE developers are actively negotiating land exchanges/returns, with one top SOE developer discussing the return of 20% of its total land bank. This process is seen as a way to enhance land bank quality and boost property sales [5][21]. Additional Important Information - The report highlights the potential for SOE developers like CR Land and COLI to benefit from these policies, as well as Jinmao as a potential dark horse due to its turnaround story [1][3]. - The average inventory month historically needs to be below 12 months for home prices to rebound, indicating that current levels are concerning [5][21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments in the China Property sector as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape and future implications.