中国电池及材料：6 月生产计划表现好于预期；政策不确定性下能见度仍低

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the China Battery & Materials industry, focusing on production trends and market dynamics for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and energy storage systems (ESS) [2][22]. Core Insights and Arguments - Production Plans: June production plans for battery makers are better than expected, with a 2% month-over-month (m/m) increase, leading to over 40% year-over-year (YoY) growth in Q2 2025 [5][19]. - Demand Drivers: - Strong demand for electric vehicles in China, which has increased by over 40% in the first five months of 2025. - Exports to the EU have also risen by 25% in the first four months of 2025 [5][19]. - ESS demand is robust across all regions, including the US, EU, and China [5]. - Production Growth: The top six Chinese battery manufacturers are planning nearly 60% growth in production for the first half of 2025, which is double the growth rate of approximately 30% YoY seen in the first half of 2024 [5]. - Policy Impact: The removal of the mandatory ESS attachment policy effective from June 1, 2025, has not negatively impacted shipments, possibly due to rush installations at solar farms [5]. - Tariff Negotiations: Upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff negotiations in July introduces policy uncertainties that could affect the market [5]. - Battery Types: - Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries are experiencing a growth rate of nearly 70% YoY in the first half of 2025, which is double that of Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) batteries at approximately 30% YoY [5]. - Production volumes for both LFP and NCM cathodes are expected to see sequential growth in June 2025 [5]. - Lithium Production: Despite low prices, lithium carbonate production in China is expected to increase by 2% m/m in June due to the resumption of suspended production lines [5]. - Battery Prices: Prices for batteries have remained stable in Q2 2025, following single-digit price cuts in Q1 2025. Most battery materials have seen single-digit price declines, with lithium carbonate and LiPF6 prices dropping by approximately 16-17% [5]. Additional Important Insights - Sales Trends: NEV sales in April 2025 were down 2% m/m, but are expected to rise by 5% m/m in May 2025 [6]. - Production Trends: The production of batteries typically leads NEV installations and shipments by one to two months [11]. - Regional Penetration: The penetration of EVs and PHEVs in China reached 52% in recent months, indicating strong market adoption [13][15]. - Future Outlook: The overall sentiment remains cautious due to macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, particularly regarding potential price hikes in battery materials [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China Battery & Materials industry.